Dangerous Typhoon Kammuri should track very close to Legazpi/Virac in apprx 12/18hours



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY Kammuri (29W)
As of 00:00 UTC Dec 02, 2019:

Location: 12.9°N 126.5°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt (205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 964 mb
CATEGORY US: 2

WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
020000Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS THE DEVELOPING
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND RJTD.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY 29W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND HAS ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. TY KAMMURI IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 12, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY, REACHING 100 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TY 29W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND INTERACTION WITH THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
TEMPORARILY ERODE THE STR, CAUSING TY 29W TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AROUND TAU 36.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
JGSM, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH A
SPREAD OF 130NM, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BY TAU 72, WINDS FROM A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT WILL
STEER TY 29W SOUTHWESTWARD. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL CAUSE TY 29W TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY,
REACHING 30 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AND DISSIPATING TO 20 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, WHICH INDICATES A WESTWARD TRACK,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN BUT THERE IS STILL A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK
SPEED DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA



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02/00UTC
02/00UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

 

HWRF: 123KTS AT +18H
HWRF: 123KTS AT +18H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 2 Décembre 2019 à 07:28