Cyclone Kyarr(04A) still a powerful cat 4, but beginning to weaken



TC 04A
TC 04A
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NORTH INDIAN

TC Kyarr(04A)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 29, 2019:

Location: 19.1°N 63.5°E
Maximum Winds: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Gusts: 150 kt ( 280km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 932 mb
CATEGORY US: 4

REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 63.4E.
29OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SYMMETRIC BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 20 NM EYE WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF STRONG OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP AND FURTHER REFINED BY A TIGHTER 282147Z AMSR2 37GHZ MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.5 (127 KTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 121 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) PROVIDING FAVORABLE DYNAMICS TO SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, AT WHICH TIME IT WILL REACH A COL BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST THAT IS THE CURRENT PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND A STR TO THE WEST. TC 04A WILL THEN TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH TAU 36 TO 115 KTS AS THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE STORM BEGINS TO EXHAUST THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AFTER TAU 36, THE INTENSITY WILL DROP MORE DRASTICALLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE IMPINGED WHEN THE STR TO THE WEST TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. FOLLOWING TAU 48, THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 51 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
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INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL FASTER AFTER 48H
INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL FASTER AFTER 48H

29/0115UTC
29/0115UTC

29/00UTC
29/00UTC

28/18UTC
28/18UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

HWRF: 133KTS AT +0H
HWRF: 133KTS AT +0H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 29 Octobre 2019 à 06:28