Cyclone 12S(ELOISE), US/Category 1, still intensifying, making landfall very close to Beira/MOZ within 6/9hours


WARNING 12. AT 22/18UTC LOCATED APPRX 115KM EAST NORTHEAST OF BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE WITH ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75KNOTS. RECENT TREND INDICATES INTENSIFICATION IS STILL LIKELY WITH PGTW(JTWC) SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE YIELDING DVORAK OF 5.0/5.0(+0.5/3H) AT 22/2045UTC. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LESS THAN 30KM SOUTH OF BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN 6/9HOURS WITH TOP GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 200KM/H CLOSE TO THE CENTER.


WARNING 12. AT 22/18UTC LOCATED APPRX 115KM EAST NORTHEAST OF BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE WITH ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75KNOTS. RECENT TREND INDICATES INTENSIFICATION IS STILL LIKELY WITH PGTW(JTWC) SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE YIELDING DVORAK OF 5.0/5.0(+0.5/3H) AT 22/2045UTC. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LESS THAN 30KM SOUTH OF BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN 6/9HOURS WITH TOP GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 200KM/H CLOSE TO THE CENTER.
WARNING 12. AT 22/18UTC LOCATED APPRX 115KM EAST NORTHEAST OF BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE WITH ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75KNOTS. RECENT TREND INDICATES INTENSIFICATION IS STILL LIKELY WITH PGTW(JTWC) SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE YIELDING DVORAK OF 5.0/5.0(+0.5/3H) AT 22/2045UTC. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL LESS THAN 30KM SOUTH OF BEIRA/MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN 6/9HOURS WITH TOP GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 200KM/H CLOSE TO THE CENTER.
2021 JAN 22 2125UTC
TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 22, 2021:
WARNING 12
Location: 19.5°S 35.9°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST  TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE TRACK JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE TRACK JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE.

22/1849UTC. THE EYE IS WELL DEPICTED WITH AN IMPROVED SIGNATURE.THE CORE HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.
22/1849UTC. THE EYE IS WELL DEPICTED WITH AN IMPROVED SIGNATURE.THE CORE HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.

22/1518UTC. THE EYE WAS LESS DEFINED COMPARED TO THE IMAGERY ABOVE 3 HOURS LATER. CORE CONVECTION WAS LESS INTENSE AND LESS TIGHT COMPARED TO THE IMAGERY ABOVE.
22/1518UTC. THE EYE WAS LESS DEFINED COMPARED TO THE IMAGERY ABOVE 3 HOURS LATER. CORE CONVECTION WAS LESS INTENSE AND LESS TIGHT COMPARED TO THE IMAGERY ABOVE.

22/18UTC. IMAGERY COURTESY OF MTOTEC.
22/18UTC. IMAGERY COURTESY OF MTOTEC.

22/18UTC.
22/18UTC.

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD  AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 55KM THROUGH 24H. AFTER 24H, THE  MODELS DIVERGE WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM  RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST  TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE TRACK JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 55KM THROUGH 24H. AFTER 24H, THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, ESPECIALLY THE TRACK JUST SOUTH OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 23 Janvier 2021 à 02:10