meteo





Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) forecast to make landfall near Coen in 24 hours as a 35knots cyclone


Satellite data depict an exposed but well defined center with flaring convection to the south


WARNING 10/JTWC
WARNING 10/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-Cyclone-ANN-27P-on-a-weakening-trend-forecast-landfall-near-Coen-in-36-hours_a827.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-TC-ANN-27P-forecast-to-make-landfall-near-Coen-as-a-45knots-cyclone-shortly-after-36-hours_a826.html

SOUTH PACIFIC

TC ANN(27P)
As of 00:00 UTC May 14, 2019:

Location: 14.6°S 149.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h )
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h )
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb


REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 148.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 132251Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED,
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER
THE SOUTH QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE 14/00Z SOUNDING FROM
WILLIS ISLAND SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR,
WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40 KNOTS HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35
KNOTS). TC 27P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 165NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 27P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS
AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS INCREASE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
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FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAR COEN IN 24H
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA NEAR COEN IN 24H

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 14 Mai 2019 à 07:09