CORAL SEA: TC 23P: slow-moving next 48hours, forecast to reach US/Category 1 by 96hours, 01/15utc update


23P. 01/14UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED, WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF AND ARLINGTON REEF AS WELL AS ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM CAIRNS PROVIDED GOOD CLARIFICATION ON THE INITIAL POSITION. CLICK TO ANIMATE THE IMAGE.


23P. 01/14UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED, WITH  FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL  CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF AND  ARLINGTON REEF AS WELL AS ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM CAIRNS PROVIDED  GOOD CLARIFICATION ON THE INITIAL POSITION. CLICK TO ANIMATE THE IMAGE.
23P. 01/14UTC. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED, WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF AND ARLINGTON REEF AS WELL AS ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM CAIRNS PROVIDED GOOD CLARIFICATION ON THE INITIAL POSITION. CLICK TO ANIMATE THE IMAGE.
2021 MAR 01 15UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #23P  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA
WARNING 3
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 01, 2021:
Location: 16.1°S 146.9°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994mb
LOCATED AT 01/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 145 KM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
 Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

23P. WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 01/15UTC.OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND MOVES  SOUTHWEST WHILE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST, INCREASING  THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING IT TO PERFORM  A SLOW CLOCKWISE LOOP AND ULTIMATELY SETTLING ON A SOUTHEASTWARD  MOTION BY 36H. ONCE ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, THE  SYSTEM WILL STEADILY ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MAJOR  SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK OUTFLOW THE SYSTEM IS  EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. BY 48H  AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, OUTFLOW  WILL IMPROVE AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO THE DEEP WESTERLIES, ALLOWING  FOR A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 BY 120H.
23P. WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 01/15UTC.OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST WHILE THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST, INCREASING THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING IT TO PERFORM A SLOW CLOCKWISE LOOP AND ULTIMATELY SETTLING ON A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION BY 36H. ONCE ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK OUTFLOW THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY INTENSIFY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. BY 48H AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO THE DEEP WESTERLIES, ALLOWING FOR A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 BY 120H.

23P. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS  WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A SYSTEM IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE  GFS STILL DEPICTS AN UNLIKELY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING  EAST AFTER 48H. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON  THE SLOW CLOCKWISE LOOP AND THEN ACCELERATION SOUTHEAST, BUT DEPICT  A LARGE AMOUNT OF ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY AFTER 72H. THE JTWC  FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR-TERM LOOPING  MOTION, AS WELL AS THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE IS  OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
23P. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A SYSTEM IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS STILL DEPICTS AN UNLIKELY TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING EAST AFTER 48H. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE SLOW CLOCKWISE LOOP AND THEN ACCELERATION SOUTHEAST, BUT DEPICT A LARGE AMOUNT OF ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY AFTER 72H. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR-TERM LOOPING MOTION, AS WELL AS THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

23P. 01/12UTC. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 6.6 m/s (12.9 kts) Direction : 48.0 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates : FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.
23P. 01/12UTC. CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 6.6 m/s (12.9 kts) Direction : 48.0 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates : FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 1 Mars 2021 à 19:20