CORAL SEA: 23P(NIRAN) forecast to peak near 70knots/US Category 1 by 72hours, 02/03utc update


23P(NIRAN). 02/0305UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG FLARING CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). CLICK TO ANIMATE.


23P(NIRAN). 02/0305UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG FLARING CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR  THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). CLICK TO ANIMATE.
23P(NIRAN). 02/0305UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG FLARING CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 MAR 02 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #23P  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA
WARNING 5
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 02, 2021:
Location: 15.1°S 147.7°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 02/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 285 KM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
11 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
 Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

23P(NIRAN). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 02/03UTC. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE; VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS  LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) FROM THE EAST, SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29- 30C) AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A MORE DEFINED  RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX, WITH THE  SYSTEM REMAINING TRAPPED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO  THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.  THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS  THE STR TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHWEST WHILE  THE NER STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST, INCREASING THE GRADIENT TO  THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING IT TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER  A SLOW QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK. ONCE ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD  TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MAJOR  SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE  TROUGH DURING 48H, AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES BY TAPPING INTO THE  DEEP WESTERLIES. THE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FASTER RATE OF  INTENSIFICATION REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 BETWEEN 72H AND 96H.
23P(NIRAN). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 02/03UTC. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE; VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) FROM THE EAST, SSTS ARE VERY WARM (29- 30C) AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A MORE DEFINED RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX, WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING TRAPPED BETWEEN A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE STR TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE NER STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SOUTHWEST, INCREASING THE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING IT TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER A SLOW QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK. ONCE ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING 48H, AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES BY TAPPING INTO THE DEEP WESTERLIES. THE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 BETWEEN 72H AND 96H.


23P(NIRAN). AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WOULD  BE EXPECTED FOR A SYSTEM IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL  MOST LIKELY FAVOR A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE  EAST-NORTHEAST BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ALONG-TRACK  SPREAD REMAINS LARGE AT 1110KM BETWEEN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GFS  AND ECMWF. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE  MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND DUE TO THE LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN  LATER TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST  TRACK.
23P(NIRAN). AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A SYSTEM IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BEFORE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS LARGE AT 1110KM BETWEEN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GFS AND ECMWF. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND DUE TO THE LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN LATER TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

23P(NIRAN). 01/2353UTC.BULLSEYE PASS FROM METOP-B  ASCAT READ AT LEAST 40KNOT WINDS.
23P(NIRAN). 01/2353UTC.BULLSEYE PASS FROM METOP-B ASCAT READ AT LEAST 40KNOT WINDS.

23P(NIRAN).  CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 9.1 m/s (17.6 kts) Direction : 82.9 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H
23P(NIRAN). CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 9.1 m/s (17.6 kts) Direction : 82.9 deg Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H

02/03UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY WARNING ON TC 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
02/03UTC. JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY WARNING ON TC 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 22S(MARIAN). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 2 Mars 2021 à 07:15