Bualoi(22W) still a powerful typhoon but weakening. Invest 97A under close watch



TY 22W
TY 22W
Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY BUALOI(22W)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 23, 2019:
Location: 21.7°N 142.2°E
Maximum Winds: 120 kt ( 220km/h)
Gusts: 145 kt ( 270km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE PREVIOUS EYE HAS SLOWLY FILLED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5
(102 KTS) FROM PGTW, A 222124Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120 KTS, AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 115 KTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 120 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. DESPITE BEING LOCATED IN A
REGION OF LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), TY
22W HAS BEGUN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AROUND TAU 12, TY 22W BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS, RECURVING
TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE AXIS,
INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE TY 22W TO WEAKEN,
GRADUALLY AT FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY, AS VWS VALUES QUICKLY INCREASE
TO GREATER THAN 20 KTS. AROUND TAU 48, TY 22W WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT),
COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WAS PLACED SLIGHTLY
EAST AND FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS AS THE TRACK ROUNDS THE STR. ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER THE
RECURVE AROUND TAU 24, THE BULK OF THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUTLIERS TO THE SOUTHEAST (NAVGEM AND
JGSM) AND NORTHWEST (ECMWF). AS THE EFFECTS OF THESE SOLUTIONS OFFSET
EACH OTHER, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WAS LAID CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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NORTH INDIAN

INVEST 97A
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 23, 2019:

Location: 15.5°N 67.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 221800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6N 63.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.5E, APPROXIMATELY 537
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 221604Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT REVEALS DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT WITH A FORMATIVE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD IN
STRUCTURE AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT VARYING TIMELINES OF DEVELOPMENT.
NAVGEM LEADS DEVELOPMENT, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 36 WHILE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW SLOWER DEVELOPEMENT TIMELINES OF 72
HOURS AND 120 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
 

INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW TYPHOON INTENSITY AFTER 48H
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW TYPHOON INTENSITY AFTER 48H

22W: 23/0420UTC
22W: 23/0420UTC

22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 97A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 97A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 23 Octobre 2019 à 08:41