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3 Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts : Invests 91W, 92W and 90W



Météo974

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 91W
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 01, 2019:
Location: 19.3°N 115.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.9N 116.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.5E, APPROXIMATELY
252 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA.  AMSI, ALONG WITH A 010202Z
MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS VERY BROAD LLCC WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF OVERCAST. A 010130 METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. 91W IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY; HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN A VERY BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW
311900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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INVEST 92W
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 01, 2019:
Location: 11.0°N 128.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 129.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY
296 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. AMSI, ALONG WITH A 010048Z
MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE
NORTH. A 010047Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED,
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS SEPARATED FROM THE
LLCC TO THE EAST. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
AND INTENSIFY; HOWEVER, THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE
INTENSIFICATION, WITH 92W POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA
ANYTIME IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF C (WTPN22 PGTW 311930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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INVEST 90W
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 01, 2019:
Location: 15.6°N 171.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
 (1) THE AREA OF COVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.3N 172.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 355NM
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010710Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE
PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC ALONG WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. A 312240Z METOP-B ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC AND SMALL POCKETS OF 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND FIELD BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE LLCC. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, DEVLOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY, REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN23 PGTW 010900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
 

INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 92W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 92W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 1 Septembre 2019 à 13:50