meteo





3 Invest areas under watch: 91W expected to intensify while over the South China Sea



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 91W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 31, 2019:
Location: 19.2°N 121.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 126.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 122.9E, APPROXIMATELY
78 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. AMSI SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE WEST. A 310107Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE AREA LARGELY DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A 310150Z
ASCAT-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LLC. 91W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SSTS BEING
OFFSET BY HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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INVEST 90W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 31, 2019:
Location: 13.7°N 174.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 179.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 175.7E, APPROXIMATELY
471 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (AMSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED WITH
BROAD OVERCAST AND DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST. A
310305Z SSMI F-15 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS MINIMAL, SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION. 90W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM (31 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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INVEST 92W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 31, 2019:
Location: 6.5°N 132.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N
134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. AMSI AND A 310045Z
MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLC
SURROUND BY DENSE OVERCAST AND SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. A 310012Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS TIGHT TROUGHING SURROUNDED
BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VWS, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
 

31/08UTC. RAMMB
31/08UTC. RAMMB

INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 92W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 92W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 31 Août 2019 à 11:51