26S(SEROJA) 70knots/US CAT1 is peaking and rapidly moving towards Geraldton area, 28P peaking at 40knots, Invest 94W, 91S and 93S: updates at 11/09utc


11/08UTC. 9H LOOP. 26S(SAROJA) IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.


11/08UTC. 9H LOOP. 26S(SAROJA) IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
11/08UTC. 9H LOOP. 26S(SAROJA) IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 APR 11 0845UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
INVEST 94W  #WESTERNORTHPACIFIC
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 11, 2021:
Location: 5.7°N 144.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS:  LOW
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC #26S #SEROJA  #SOUTHINDIAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 28
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 11, 2021:
Location: 26.1°S 112.0°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb
US CATEGORY: 1
INTENSIFYING
26S(SEROJA) LOCATED AT 11/06UTC APPROXIMATELY 470KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 42 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------------------
TC #28P  #SOUTHPACIFIC
WARNING 3
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 11, 2021:
Location: 26.1°S 169.2°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
28P LOCATED AT 11/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 545KM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 35 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 91S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 11, 2021:
Location: 14.5°S 104.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 93S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 11, 2021:
Location: 7.0°S 81.2°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

26S(SAROJA) . WARNING 28 ISSUED AT 11/09UTC. TC 26S IS CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY  OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MOTION  THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO  MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS  BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN BIGHT. WHILE  STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE, TC 26S IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF  INTERACTION WITH THE DRIER, COOLER AIR MASS ENTRENCHED TO THE  SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)  IMMINENTLY. AS IT MOVES OVER LAND THROUGH 12H, THE SYSTEM WILL  COMPLETE ETT NO LATER THAN 24H AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE  DEEP WESTERLIES AND DEVELOPS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM HAS  LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN PRIOR TO  LANDFALL DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. ONCE  OVER LAND, THE INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN AND VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES WILL  RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES ETT.
26S(SAROJA) . WARNING 28 ISSUED AT 11/09UTC. TC 26S IS CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA WITHIN THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT AUSTRALIAN BIGHT. WHILE STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE, TC 26S IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF INTERACTION WITH THE DRIER, COOLER AIR MASS ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IMMINENTLY. AS IT MOVES OVER LAND THROUGH 12H, THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT NO LATER THAN 24H AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP WESTERLIES AND DEVELOPS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. ONCE OVER LAND, THE INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN AND VERY HIGH SHEAR VALUES WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT UNDERGOES ETT.

26S(SAROJA).GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE  JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
26S(SAROJA).GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

26S(SAROJA). 110630Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING  AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED 13KM WIDE  MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE EYE FEATURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN ANIMATED  RADAR DATA FROM THE CARNARVON AIRPORT RADAR SITE. THE COMBINATION OF  THE DATA CONFIRMING THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE RADAR, VISIBLE AND  MICROWAVE IMAGERY LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KNOTS/US CAT 1 WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE,  SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF  T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND APRF, AND KNES AT T5.0 (90 KTS).  ADT WAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT T3.1, BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE  MICROWAVE AND RADAR EYE PROVIDED STRONG SUPPORT FOR AN INCREASE IN  THE INTENSITY OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOUR ANALYSIS.
26S(SAROJA). 110630Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT CORE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED 13KM WIDE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE EYE FEATURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE CARNARVON AIRPORT RADAR SITE. THE COMBINATION OF THE DATA CONFIRMING THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE RADAR, VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KNOTS/US CAT 1 WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND APRF, AND KNES AT T5.0 (90 KTS). ADT WAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT T3.1, BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE MICROWAVE AND RADAR EYE PROVIDED STRONG SUPPORT FOR AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOUR ANALYSIS.

 

28P. WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 11/09UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 28P HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT AND  SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH MODERATE CONVECTIVE BANDS  WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100520Z  SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT WHILE THE MSI INDICATED A  SYMMETRIC CORE, IT IS VERY ASYMMETRIC, WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE  BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH  ONLY SHALLOW BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE MICROWAVE DATA  ALSO REVEALED A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED EYE-LIKE FEATURE WHICH LENT  HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS  HELD AT 40 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN  THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON A  PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS WHICH REVEALED SOME 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN  SEMICIRCLE, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS). TC 28P IS EXPECTED  TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE  FORECAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM  IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR  AND MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C, THOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW  REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WEAKENING FOR THE PRESENT. OVER THE  NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE  TO ABOVE 35 KNOTS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MOVEMENT OVER PROGRESSIVELY  COOLER WATERS, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE TC 28P  NO LATER THAN 24H.
28P. WARNING 3 ISSUED AT 11/09UTC.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 28P HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH MODERATE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100520Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT WHILE THE MSI INDICATED A SYMMETRIC CORE, IT IS VERY ASYMMETRIC, WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTORS OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH ONLY SHALLOW BANDS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, THE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO REVEALED A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED EYE-LIKE FEATURE WHICH LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS WHICH REVEALED SOME 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS). TC 28P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C, THOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT WEAKENING FOR THE PRESENT. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE TO ABOVE 35 KNOTS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MOVEMENT OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE TC 28P NO LATER THAN 24H.

28P. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL  AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
28P. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

INVEST 94W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A  PARTIAL 110315Z GMI 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DISORGANIZED  BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH  CYCLING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A  PARTIAL 110014Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLC STRETCHING  FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A STRONG  (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. INVEST 94W  IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST  WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM  (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL  AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 94W WILL  CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
INVEST 94W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 110315Z GMI 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL DISORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A PARTIAL 110014Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLC STRETCHING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A STRONG (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

INVEST 93S.
INVEST 93S.

11/09UTC.
11/09UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 11 Avril 2021 à 13:30