19S(FARAJI): Category 4 still well organised, slowly losing strength next 48h, Invest 92P on the map


19S(FARAJI). 07/21UTC. 9H LOOP.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 37- KM EYE AND COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION, EVEN AS CONVECTIVE TOPS WARM. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.


19S(FARAJI). 07/21UTC. 9H LOOP.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 37- KM EYE AND COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION, EVEN AS CONVECTIVE TOPS WARM. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
19S(FARAJI). 07/21UTC. 9H LOOP.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 37- KM EYE AND COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL CONVECTION, EVEN AS CONVECTIVE TOPS WARM. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.


JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S. INVEST 92P IS UNDER WATCH.
JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 19S(FARAJI). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 19S. INVEST 92P IS UNDER WATCH.
2021 FEB 07 2155UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 6
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 07, 2021:
Location: 14.6°S 80.2°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 07/18UTC APPROXIMATELY 1185 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INVEST #92P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 07, 2021:
Location: 14.7°S 178.7°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW.

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

19S(FARAJI). WARNING 6.THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEAS, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 19S IS SLOWLY COMING OUT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH STEERS IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. AROUND 72H, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL BUILD, ASSUME STEERING AND GRADUALLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD. AS TC 19S PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CAUSED BY UPWELLING DUE TO ITS PROLONGED QS STATE, PLUS THE INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR, WILL OFFSET THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, RESULTING IN A NET WEAKENING AND, BY 72H, WILL BE DOWN TO 90KNOTS/US CATEGORY 2. AFTERWARD, AS THE CYCLONE MAKES A WIDE U-TURN WESTWARD, INCREASING VWS (20KT+), PLUS THE SUBSIDING IMPACT OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE TC FARAJI DOWN TO 45KNOTS BY 120H.
19S(FARAJI). WARNING 6.THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEAS, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 19S IS SLOWLY COMING OUT OF A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH STEERS IT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. AROUND 72H, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WILL BUILD, ASSUME STEERING AND GRADUALLY DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD. AS TC 19S PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CAUSED BY UPWELLING DUE TO ITS PROLONGED QS STATE, PLUS THE INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR, WILL OFFSET THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, RESULTING IN A NET WEAKENING AND, BY 72H, WILL BE DOWN TO 90KNOTS/US CATEGORY 2. AFTERWARD, AS THE CYCLONE MAKES A WIDE U-TURN WESTWARD, INCREASING VWS (20KT+), PLUS THE SUBSIDING IMPACT OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE TC FARAJI DOWN TO 45KNOTS BY 120H.

19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTIONS IN THE POST-QUASI STATIONARY PHASE AND DURING THE STEERING TRANSITION AROUND 72H, RESULT IN AN OVERALL LOW  CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF  CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM.
19S(FARAJI). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. HOWEVER, THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTIONS IN THE POST-QUASI STATIONARY PHASE AND DURING THE STEERING TRANSITION AROUND 72H, RESULT IN AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NAVGEM.

19S(FARAJI). 07/201UTC. MICROWAVE STILL DEPICTING A COMPACT AND INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE.
19S(FARAJI). 07/201UTC. MICROWAVE STILL DEPICTING A COMPACT AND INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE.

INVEST 92P.NUMERICAL MODELS ARE  IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD  WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE.
INVEST 92P.NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE.

19S(FARAJI). 07/2017UTC.NPP.
19S(FARAJI). 07/2017UTC.NPP.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 8 Février 2021 à 02:40