meteo





17W forecast to dissipate in 48h. Invest 95W: downgraded to Low



17W: WARNING 3/JTWC
17W: WARNING 3/JTWC
Météo974

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TD 17W( invest 97W)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 15, 2019:

Location: 16.6°N 148.9°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
651 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRACKING
NORTHWARD, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A
142359Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE DISPLAYS AN AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE LLCC, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS. DESPITE STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH (30-31 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERTURE (SST), TD 17W REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TD 17W CONTINUES TO TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SHALLOW, NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TD 17W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS VWS VALUES PERSIST AT
40-50 KNOTS, SHEARING THE SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 48.
WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT, PLACING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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INVEST 95W

As of 06:00 UTC Sep 15, 2019:

Location: 25.0°N 136.8°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 150600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.1N 135.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 135.5E, APPROXIMATELY
325 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY MAINTAINS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITHOUT ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. INVEST
95W REMAINS IN THE BROAD WIND FIELD OF THE MONSOON GYRE WITH A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH WIDE DISPARITY IN THE TIMING OF
CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. SEE REF B
(WTPN21 PGTW 150530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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INVEST 98W
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 15, 2019:

Location: 31.1°N 140.8°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 150600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
  (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 28.1N 142.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY
334 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED WITHIN
TROUGHING WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY OFFSET TO
THE SOUTHEAST. A 142314Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
AREA OF WINDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. INVEST 98W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OFFSET TO THE EAST AND MARGINAL (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 990 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

 

17W IS DEEMED TO HAVE PEAKED AT 30KNOTS.
17W IS DEEMED TO HAVE PEAKED AT 30KNOTS.

15/06UTC: 17W
15/06UTC: 17W

INVEST 95W IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW
INVEST 95W IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW

17W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
17W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

 

INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 98W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 98W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 15 Septembre 2019 à 13:04