15UTC: VERONICA(21S) category 2 US, 165km northwest of Port Hedland, slowly approaching the coast


Warning 16/JTWC


WARNING 16/JTWC
WARNING 16/JTWC
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC VERONICA(21S)
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 23, 2019:

Location: 19.3°S 117.4°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt (205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb
CATEGORY 2US

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 117.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION ENCIRCLING A WIDE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5
(102 KTS), 231140Z AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5, AND A 231106Z
SATCON ESTIMATE IS 91 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT HAS EASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION.
TC 21S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK INDUCED STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS POSITIONED
BETWEEN TC 21S AND TC 20P. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
INCREASING VWS AS IT APPROACHES LAND. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODELS.
AFTER TAU 24, TC 21S IS FORECAST TO SLOW THEN TRACK WESTWARD AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS MAY TRACK CLOSE TO LEARMONTH, HOWEVER,
THERE IS A HIGH CERTAINTY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK REMNANT
LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH VWS PERSISTING OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU
48. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AND TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN
WITH A 130NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THE GFS SOLUTION IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO LAND, WHILE NAVGEM
AND GALWEM ARE TO THE NORTH OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z,
240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(JOANINHA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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WARNING 16/JTWC
WARNING 16/JTWC

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 23 Mars 2019 à 18:44