13 days later: CAT 2 US TC 11S(FREDDY) back to Typhoon intensity still intensifying//SS 16P(KEVIN)//Invest 97P//0715utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 11S(FREDDY). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON SUBTROPICAL STORM 16P(KEVIN).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENTLY CONSOLIDATED TYPHOON STRENGTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A 6NM NASCENT EYE AND TIGHT BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS. A 071017Z GMI 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A NEARLY CLOSED EYE FEATURE, A PROMINENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE TO THE EAST AND AN EXPOSED WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH IS REVEALING TIGHTLY WRAPPING LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES BENEATH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REACTING TO THE RECENTLY DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE WHILE FMEE AND CIMMS AUTOMATED ESTIMATES REMAIN BEHIND THE TIMES. HAVING SHOWN RELIABILITY IN DATA SPARSE ENVIRONMENTS SUCH AS THIS, CIMMS DEEP MICRONET (DMN) AND OPEN-AIR USE OTHER AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO ASSESS TC INTENSITY. BOTH AFOREMENTIONED CIMMS PRODUCTS ASSESS THE INTENSITY NEAR THE JTWC INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY. FOR THESE REASONS THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION DUE TO DECREASING LAND INTERACTION AND UPWELLING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CHANNEL. FORECAST DISCUSSION: HAVING ONCE AGAIN ACHIEVED TYPHOON STRENGTH VIA RAPID INTENSIFICATION, TC 11S (FREDDY) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION TREND AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR, THERE IS NO SIGN OF SIGNIFICANT ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CORE OF THE TC. IF 11S CAN MAINTAIN THIS MOIST CORE, COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS, 11S IS FORECAST TO PEAK BY TAU 72 NEAR 105KTS. NEAR TAU 96, 11S WILL MAKE LANDFALL ONCE AGAIN OVER MOZAMBIQUE AND PROCEED INLAND WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE NAVGEM AS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER AND THE GALWEM AS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS THUS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 AND SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF CONSENSUS BEYOND TAU 72. DUE TO THE MODERATE ALONG- AND CROSS-TRACK ERRORS, THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ALL SUGGEST GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION, BUT WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS BEYOND TAU 72 GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN LANDFALL TIMING. THE HWRF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE, BUT THINK THIS IS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE LACK OF OCEAN FEEDBACK IN THE RECENT RUNS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS BY BELOW THE HWRF SOLUTION, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 16P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 36.9S 161.9W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.