12S(ELOISE) made landfall apprx 50km south of Antalaha, forecast to re-intensify significantly once over the MOZ Channel


THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING LOW-CLOUD TRACING IN
THE EIR LOOP AND TRIANGULATION FROM COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS,
INCLUDING ANTALAHA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KNOTS IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND DEDUCED FROM INLAND SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. 12S(ELOISE) WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, DRAG ACROSS THE
ISLAND, THEN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN APPRX 36H, AND BY
96H WILL MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NORTH OF MAXIXE.
THE RUGGED MADAGASCAR TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 30KTS BY
24H4; HOWEVER, AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT
WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 80KNOTS/CATEGORY 1 US BEFORE LANDFALL. BY 120H,
LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE IT TO 60KNOTS.


WARNING 6. THE INITIAL  POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING LOW-CLOUD TRACING IN  THE EIR LOOP AND TRIANGULATION FROM COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS,  INCLUDING ANTALAHA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED  FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND DEDUCED FROM INLAND SEA  LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. 12S(ELOISE) WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD  ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, DRAG ACROSS THE  ISLAND, THEN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN APPRX 36H, AND BY  96H WILL MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NORTH OF MAXIXE.  THE RUGGED MADAGASCAR TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 30KTS BY  24H4; HOWEVER, AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT  WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 80KNOTS/CATEGORY 1 US BEFORE LANDFALL. BY 120H,  LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE IT TO 60KNOTS.
WARNING 6. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING LOW-CLOUD TRACING IN THE EIR LOOP AND TRIANGULATION FROM COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING ANTALAHA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND DEDUCED FROM INLAND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. 12S(ELOISE) WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, DRAG ACROSS THE ISLAND, THEN EXIT INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN APPRX 36H, AND BY 96H WILL MAKE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NORTH OF MAXIXE. THE RUGGED MADAGASCAR TERRAIN WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 30KTS BY 24H4; HOWEVER, AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE WARM MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT WILL GRADUALLY RE-INTENSIFY TO 80KNOTS/CATEGORY 1 US BEFORE LANDFALL. BY 120H, LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE IT TO 60KNOTS.
2021 JAN 19 22UTC
TC #12S #ELOISE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
As of 18:00 UTC Jan 19, 2021:
WARNING 6
Location: 15.3°S 50.1°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
WEAKENING OVER-LAND
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World

12S MADE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF ANTALAHA.
12S MADE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF ANTALAHA.

12S IS FORECAST TO EXIT OVER OPEN WATER APPRX 120KM SOUTHWEST OF BESALAMPY BY 21/06UTC.
12S IS FORECAST TO EXIT OVER OPEN WATER APPRX 120KM SOUTHWEST OF BESALAMPY BY 21/06UTC.

19/2030UTC. HEAVY RAIN IS OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR AS 12S IS PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND.
19/2030UTC. HEAVY RAIN IS OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR AS 12S IS PUSHING SLOWLY INLAND.

 

NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN  TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  AT 120H, A STRAND OF MODELS INCLUDING AFUM, UEMN, AND AVNO  DEFLECT THE VORTEX SOUTHEASTWARD BACK INTO THE CHANNEL, AN UNLIKELY  SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND AT THE TERMINATION  POINT TO OFFSET THIS UNLIKELY DEFLECTION.
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AT 120H, A STRAND OF MODELS INCLUDING AFUM, UEMN, AND AVNO DEFLECT THE VORTEX SOUTHEASTWARD BACK INTO THE CHANNEL, AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. THE JTWC TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND AT THE TERMINATION POINT TO OFFSET THIS UNLIKELY DEFLECTION.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 20 Janvier 2021 à 02:30