09UTC: TC 18S has formed over the MOZ Channel, could be a powerful Category 4 US in 4 days and threaten BEIRA/Mozambique


Warning 1/JTWC


0830UTC
0830UTC


0617UTC
0617UTC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/
TC 18S
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 09, 2019:

Location: 17.0°S 40.2°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt (85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 40.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 090338Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED WHILE TRACKING BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, AND SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THIS WINDSAT
IMAGE AS WELL AS ON A 090618Z ASCAT-B AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE 25-30 KNOT WINDS WITH
AN ISOLATED 30-35 KNOT WIND OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. HOWEVER, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM FMEE AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A JET OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR, AS
WELL AS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (28-29C). TC 18S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH BUT IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 36 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH. THIS COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU
48 LEADING TO A SLOW OR POSSIBLY QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION. AFTER
TAU 48, THE STR WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC
18S WILL ACCELERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MOZAMBIQUE, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 108. DESPITE THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EARLY TAUS DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
IMPROVED AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
(HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 18S IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND
100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31
PGTW). THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 082200).//
NNNN


0648UTC
0648UTC

0617UTC
0617UTC


0338UTC
0338UTC



HWRF AT 00UTC: 129KT AT +90H
HWRF AT 00UTC: 129KT AT +90H


GFS AT 00UTC: 98KT AT +60H
GFS AT 00UTC: 98KT AT +60H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 9 Mars 2019 à 11:20