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04W (CHOI-wan) : struggling to organize, forecast intensity is much lower than the previous forecast// Invest 93S and Invest 90W on the map, 01/03utc update


TS 04W. DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES THROUGH 72H, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


TS 04W. DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES THROUGH 72H, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TS 04W. DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES THROUGH 72H, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
2021 JUNE 01 0425UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TS #04W #CHOI-WAN
WARNING 10
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 01, 2021:
Location: 10.1°N 127.3°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt (75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
LOCATED AT 01/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 845 KM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #90W
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 01, 2021:
Location: 11.3°N 140.3°E
Maximum Winds: 15/20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
LOCATED AT 27/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 515 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS:  LOW
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INVEST #93S #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 00:00 UTC Jun 01, 2021:
Location: 9.5°S 90.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20/25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
LOCATED AT 27/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 735 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS:  UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TS 04W. WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 01/03UTC.THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TS 04W HAS DECOUPLED AND IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AFTER 72H, THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. TS 04W WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR 96H BUT MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT NEAR 120H.
TS 04W. WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 01/03UTC.THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). TS 04W HAS DECOUPLED AND IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AFTER 72H, THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. TS 04W WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR 96H BUT MAY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT NEAR 120H.

TS 04W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND NAVGEM, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, THE 31/18UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A TRACK OVER LUZON WITH THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIRECTLY OVER LUZON.AFTER 72H MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF RECURVATURE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TS 04W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND NAVGEM, WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, THE 31/18UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A TRACK OVER LUZON WITH THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIRECTLY OVER LUZON.AFTER 72H MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF RECURVATURE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.


TS 04W. 01/04UTC. POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WHICH HAS DECOUPLED( EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AWAY FROM DEEP CONVECTION).
TS 04W. 01/04UTC. POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WHICH HAS DECOUPLED( EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AWAY FROM DEEP CONVECTION).

TS 04W. MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH IS LOCATED OVER LAND.
TS 04W. MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH IS LOCATED OVER LAND.


INVEST 90W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010400Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, A 010004Z METOP- B ASCAT IMAGE FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE OF 90W WITH POTENTIAL MULTIPLE CENTERS OF CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER OVERALL ROTATION. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION AND THE SMALLER EMBEDDED FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT, CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT.
INVEST 90W. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010400Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT BROAD AREA OF TURNING OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, A 010004Z METOP- B ASCAT IMAGE FURTHER EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE OF 90W WITH POTENTIAL MULTIPLE CENTERS OF CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER OVERALL ROTATION. THE POSITION IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION AND THE SMALLER EMBEDDED FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS OFFSET, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THOUGH OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE LACK OF A DISTINCT, CONSOLIDATED LLCC AT THIS TIME WILL SERVE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT.


INVEST 93S. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010017Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES, STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OUTFLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAP INTO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. FURTHERMORE, A 010217Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS INCREASED WINDS (20-25KTS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
INVEST 93S. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010017Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES, STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OUTFLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAP INTO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. FURTHERMORE, A 010217Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS INCREASED WINDS (20-25KTS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

01/06UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 04W. INVEST 90W IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE MAP: LOW CHANCES OF DEVELOPING 25KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER OVER 24HOURS.INVEST 93S IS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM: MODERATE CHANCES OF DEVELOPING 35KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER OVER 24HOURS. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE NOW ISSUED ON 93S.
01/06UTC. JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TS 04W. INVEST 90W IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE MAP: LOW CHANCES OF DEVELOPING 25KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER OVER 24HOURS.INVEST 93S IS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM: MODERATE CHANCES OF DEVELOPING 35KNOT WINDS NEAR ITS CENTER OVER 24HOURS. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE NOW ISSUED ON 93S.


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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Tuesday, June 1st 2021 à 08:55
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Liens utiles
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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