03UTC: TC 24S has formed, forecast to intensify and reach category 1 US in 48hours


Warning 1/JTWC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
TC 24S
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 23, 2019:

Location: 10.0°S 50.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 50.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 716 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE COMPACT AND
SYMMETRIC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A BROAD CENTER
IDENTIFIED IN A 221840Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND SUPPORTED BY A
222335Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
LARGE SWATH OF 25KT WIND BARBS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH
LIMITED 30 TO 35 KT BARBS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT UNDER
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE
ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW
AND KNES. DESPITE THE 30 KNOT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT, THE FIRST
WARNING FOR TC 24S IS BEING ISSUED AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TC 24S IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KNOT) ALONG TRACK SHEAR,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND A MODERATE
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEYOND TAU 72, DUE TO A 200 NM SPREAD AMONG THE
CONSENSUS. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STR
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THEREAFTER. UKMET, NAVGEM AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE TAKE A SLOWER, MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK TO DRAW TC 24S
TOWARDS A TROUGH APROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN, FAVORING THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER MOZAMBIQUE AND TANZANIA
BY TAU 120. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE RECURVE SCENARIO BACK ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 221430).//
NNNN

WARNING 1/JTWC
WARNING 1/JTWC

0326UTC: MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST RAPID DEVELOPMENT
0326UTC: MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST RAPID DEVELOPMENT

03UTC
03UTC

03UTC
03UTC

 

Ocean Heat Content(OHC): good overall along the forecast track.
Ocean Heat Content(OHC): good overall along the forecast track.

 

INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE

HWRF AT 18UTC: 99KT AT +66H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 99KT AT +66H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 23 Avril 2019 à 07:41