WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TS 05W(HAGUPIT). WARNING 7 ISSUED BY JTWC @07/0900 UTC
PROGNOSTIC REASONING
WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 7.5N 142.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 309 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. FLARING
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT REMAIN DISORGANIZED
AND THE RESULTING MSI PRESENTATION IS ASYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC IN ANIMATED MSI. A 070253Z OSCAT IMAGE
REVEALS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
SURROUNDING ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF
30-35 KTS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OSCAT WIND SPEEDS AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR ARE ACTING TO OFFSET THE
OTHER MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 070510Z
CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 070600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 070600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 070343Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 070600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AND
HIGH MID-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAGUPIT) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF YAP AROUND 081700Z.
THE TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AFTER TAU 72 AS 05W TURNS TO A
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE MIGRATES
SLOWLY EASTWARD, SETTING UP A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TS HAGUPIT
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 40 KTS AT TAU 12, THEN
MAINTAIN 40 KTS THROUGH TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STYMIE
ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AFTER TAU 72 IN AN AREA OF
ABUNDANT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND INCREASING VWS, BECOMING FULLY
DISSIPATED BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
110 NM AT TAU 72 (DISCOUNTING NAVGEM AS AN OUTLIER WELL TO THE
NORTH). THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 210 NM BY TAU 120 AND
THERE IS A NOTABLE ALONG-TRACK DISPARITY OF 170 NM THAT INDICATES
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEED AS 05W ENTERS INTO A WEAKER
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHIPS SOLUTIONS,
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINTAINING
INTENSITY. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36, THEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS
MEMBERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 7.5N 142.9E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 309 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES. FLARING
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT REMAIN DISORGANIZED
AND THE RESULTING MSI PRESENTATION IS ASYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC IN ANIMATED MSI. A 070253Z OSCAT IMAGE
REVEALS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
SURROUNDING ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF
30-35 KTS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OSCAT WIND SPEEDS AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES
LISTED BELOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR ARE ACTING TO OFFSET THE
OTHER MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 070510Z
CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 070600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 070600Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 070343Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 070600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK AND
HIGH MID-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAGUPIT) IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF YAP AROUND 081700Z.
THE TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AFTER TAU 72 AS 05W TURNS TO A
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE MIGRATES
SLOWLY EASTWARD, SETTING UP A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TS HAGUPIT
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 40 KTS AT TAU 12, THEN
MAINTAIN 40 KTS THROUGH TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STYMIE
ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DISSIPATING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AFTER TAU 72 IN AN AREA OF
ABUNDANT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND INCREASING VWS, BECOMING FULLY
DISSIPATED BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF
110 NM AT TAU 72 (DISCOUNTING NAVGEM AS AN OUTLIER WELL TO THE
NORTH). THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 210 NM BY TAU 120 AND
THERE IS A NOTABLE ALONG-TRACK DISPARITY OF 170 NM THAT INDICATES
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEED AS 05W ENTERS INTO A WEAKER
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHIPS SOLUTIONS,
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINTAINING
INTENSITY. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36, THEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS
MEMBERS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 93S. UPDATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY @07/0600 UTC. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED BY JTWC @07/0200 UTC.
ABPW10 PGTW 050330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/050330Z-050600ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 149.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING
OVER THE CENTER AND INCREASING FORMATIVE BANDING EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN QUADRANT CYCLONICALLY INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 15 KTS,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30 C. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
93W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIES, HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN FAVOR OF A MORE RAPID AND INTENSE CONSOLIDATION, WHEREAS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY AS IT APPROACHES
THE PHILIPPINE SEA. ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTORS THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS
WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONEWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 050330)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/050330Z-050600ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 150.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 149.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING
OVER THE CENTER AND INCREASING FORMATIVE BANDING EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN QUADRANT CYCLONICALLY INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY
AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 15 KTS,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30 C. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
93W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIES, HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN FAVOR OF A MORE RAPID AND INTENSE CONSOLIDATION, WHEREAS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY AS IT APPROACHES
THE PHILIPPINE SEA. ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CHARACTERIZE DRY AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTORS THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS
WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONEWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 050330)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH//
NNNN
