00UTC: South Indian: 90S is likely to intensify next 24hours east of the Chagos


TCFA issued by the JTWC at 23UTC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
INVEST 91S
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 23, 2019:

Location: 6.3°S 81.4°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WTXS22 PGTW 222300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221421Z APR 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 221430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.0S 80.7E TO 9.3S 84.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.5S
81.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2S
79.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5S 81.1E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
STRONG CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH, AND TWO FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND NORTH. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (27-29C)
SSTS AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS) THAT DECREASES TO THE SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH SOME SPREAD DUE TO VARYING DEGREES OF INTERACTION
WITH A SMALLER CIRCULATION TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODEL TIMING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF 35KT WINDS RANGES FROM APPROXIMATELY 12 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 51.3E (WTXS21 PGTW 221430).//
NNNN





Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 23 Avril 2019 à 07:01