meteo





Wipha(08W): Final Warning. Francisco(09W): slowly intensifying. 94W: monsoon depression


08W: Peak intensity was 40knots. JMV File joined.


FRANCISCO(09W): WARNING 7. PEAK INTENSITY OF 65/70KNOTS EXPECTED AT LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU IN APPROX 60H.
FRANCISCO(09W): WARNING 7. PEAK INTENSITY OF 65/70KNOTS EXPECTED AT LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU IN APPROX 60H.
WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS FRANCISCO (09W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 03, 2019:
Location: 25.4°N 147.2°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
REMARKS:
WDPN32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
OBSCURED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DESPITE THAT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON A 030535Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND A
022122Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 44 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING
CONVERGENCE ALOFT FROM A TUTT CELL JUST TO THE WEST OF TS 09W, IS
MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. NOTABLY, DESPITE THE MAX
WIND DEPICTED ON THE WARNING GRAPHIC BEING 60 KTS, WIND SPEEDS OF 65-
70 KTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND TAU 60, AS TS 09W MAKES LANDFALL ON
KYUSHU. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER WINDS FALLS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72
AND IS NOT DISPLAYED ON THE WARNING GRAPHIC.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SASEBO UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, WHICH STAYS FAR
LEFT OF CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THE SPREAD IS LOW AT AROUND 150
NM AT TAU 72. TS 09W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH ABOUT TAU 30 DUE
TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE FILLING TUTT CELL. AFTER TAU 30,
DESPITE POOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, TS 09W SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING 65-70 KTS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER
KYUSHU, JAPAN AROUND TAU 60. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE RUGGED
TERRAIN SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE INTENSITY BY TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 09W WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AS IT
STARTS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL WEST OF
BUSAN, KOREA. ALTHOUGH NAVGEM AND GFS ARE EAST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS,
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TRACK. BY TAU 120, TS
09W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
START UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER COOLER (23-25 DEGREE
CELSIUS) SEAS. BASED ON GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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REMNANTS OF TD WIPHA(08W)

As of 06:00 UTC Aug 03, 2019:

Location: 20.8°N 105.7°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt ( 45/50km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb

REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 106.3E.
03AUG19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
41 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY-DEFINED AND OBSCURED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE USING MSI, A 022146Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND
ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 30 KT INTENSITY IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW A RJTD SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KTS) DUE TO WEAKENING BANDING AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION
EFFECTS. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW, IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. AS THE CENTER OF TD 08W CONTINUES
TO TRACK INLAND, INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY. TD 08W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED FINAL WARNING JUSTIFICATION
TO REMARKS SECTION.//
NNNN
JMV FILE/JTWC
0819072900 164N1169E  20
0819072906 167N1168E  20
0819072912 169N1167E  20
0819072918 172N1163E  20
0819073000 179N1157E  20
0819073006 180N1148E  20
0819073012 179N1140E  25
0819073018 182N1133E  30
0819073100 186N1129E  30
0819073106 195N1124E  35
0819073112 199N1118E  35
0819073118 201N1115E  35
0819080100 202N1112E  35
0819080106 207N1110E  35
0819080112 214N1101E  35
0819080118 213N1094E  30
0819080200 212N1092E  35
0819080206 215N1090E  40
0819080212 216N1086E  35
0819080218 215N1076E  35
0819080300 212N1066E  30
NNNN

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INVEST 94W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 03, 2019:
Location: 16.3°N 132.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 030600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 133.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 132.6E, APPROXIMATELY
689 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. INVEST 94W
REMAINS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, 400NM IN DIAMETER. RECENT ASCAT
IMAGERY PORTRAYS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A BROAD CORE OF
WEAK (10-20 KNOT) WINDS. STRONG, CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS (30-35
KNOTS) PRODUCE DISPLACED ELONGATED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICTS MULTIPLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINAL
OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28-30C. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH SLOW
WRAPPING OF THE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
 

FRANCISCO(09W): 03/0630UTC
FRANCISCO(09W): 03/0630UTC

FRANCISCO(09W): 03/0709UTC. DMSP/F18
FRANCISCO(09W): 03/0709UTC. DMSP/F18

FRANCISCO(09W): 03/0709UTC. DMSP/F18
FRANCISCO(09W): 03/0709UTC. DMSP/F18

FRANCISCO(09W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FRANCISCO(09W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

REMNANTS OF WIPHA(08W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
REMNANTS OF WIPHA(08W): TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 94W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 94W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 3 Août 2019 à 12:54