Western Pacific: Invest 98W up-graded to Medium//Eastern Pacific: TS 23W(RICK) forecast to rapidly intensify, 23/06utc

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.6N 143.8E, APPROXIMATELY 415 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. A 220635Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLC. A 221034Z ASCAT-A IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 05-15 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING A WEAK CORE. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED WEST OF GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO PEAK AT 90KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 15/00UTC.

TS 17E(RICK). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

23/0530UTC.