Western Pacific: 99W is High, 90W up-graded to Medium//South Indian: 90S down-graded to Low//Atlantic: still active with 16L,17L and 98L, 22/09utc updates

22/00UTC.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 150.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 150.1E, APPROXIMATELY 660 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 220305Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS DEPICT POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A COMBINATION OF BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS HOWEVER, THEY ARE SPLIT ON THE DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT. GFS, ITS ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, INDICATING RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION, WITH 99W DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARE STILL MUCH MORE RESERVED, INDICATING LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER 48H, WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 115.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 550 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A DISCREET LLCC WITH 20 KNOT WINDS IN ALL QUADRANTS, AND HIGHER WINDS IN A BAND TO THE SOUTH. RECENT TRENDS FROM A SHIP TRANSITING JUST EAST OF THE LLCC INDICATES WINDS SHIFTING FROM WEST- NORTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS, AND A PRESSURE READING OF 1004.2 MB, INDICATING A CLOSE PASSAGE TO THE CENTER AND A LOWER PRESSURE THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANIED BY LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS VIETNAM AS IT STEADILY CONSOLIDATES. GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM ALL AGREE ON THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATING AND STRENGTHENING TO NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATING SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3S 81.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 80.5E, APPROXIMATELY 925 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTI SPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, DISORGANIZED AND ILL DEFINED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS NOW DEPICTS SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), BUT VERY STRONG (30- 40KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

22/00UTC.

ATLANTIC. TD 16L(PETER). WARNING 14 ISSUED AT 22/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO BE DOWN TO 25KNOTS BY 23/00UTC.

TD 16L(PETER). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

TD 17L(ROSE). WARNING 12 ISSUED AT 22/03UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 30KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO BE DOWN TO 25KNOTS BY 25/00UTC.

TD 17L(ROSE). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

INVEST 98L. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 22/01UTC.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 185 KM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 29.5W TO 9.8N 34.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 212330Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 29.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 28 KM/H. 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING AND ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED, BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.

INVEST 98L. TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

22/10UTC.