Western Pacific: 4 systems being tracked// Eastern Pacific: 3 systems monitored, 04/03utc updates

JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARINGS ON 13W. WARNING 5/FINAL WAS ISSUED ON 12W AT 03/09UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS ARE IN FORCE FOR INVEST 97W AND INVEST 99W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 13W, 97W AND 99W. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR 12W AT 05/00UTC.

TS 13W(LUPIT). WARNING 6 ISSUED AT 04/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE(NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE NER BUILDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND WILL CROSS OVER THE COAST OF CHINA BY 36H. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 45KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN INTENSITY BEFORE TS 13W CROSSES BACK OVER WATER AROUND 72H. AT THIS POINT, THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE YELLOW SEA.

TS 13W(LUPIT). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 032318UTC SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES.

13W(LUPIT). MODEL DISCUSSION: THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK UP TO 24H, BUT DIVERGE AFTERWARDS WITH JGSM AND GFS AS THE LEFT MOST OUTLIERS THAT TRACK TS 13W FAR WEST OVER LAND. THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE AND EVENTUALLY BACK OVER THE OCEAN. THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS.

INVEST 97W IS NOW TD 14W.WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 04/09UTC.THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS TD 14W CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND GAIN VERTICAL HEIGHT, THE STEERING MECHANISM WILL SWITCH TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FORCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE STR WILL INITIALLY DRIVE THE TD NORTHWARD OVER OKINAWA THEN NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 24H AS THE STR REORIENTS AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD. BY 120H, TD 14W WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 575KM SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO, JAPAN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55KNOTS BY 96H AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF TOKYO. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45KNOTS BY 120H.

TD 14W. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD, LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH SEVERAL WEAK VORTICES, ONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION BECAME FULLY EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE CENTROID OF THE SPINNERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK FIXES. THE SYSTEM IS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SSTS.

14W.MODEL DISCUSSION: THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WITH GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREADING TO A MERE 445KM BY 120H. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE STORM MOTION TYPICAL OF DEVELOPING SYSTEMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT IS ALIGNED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS; ALSO WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

INVEST 99W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 04/0330UTC. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.8N 146.4E TO 32.8N 147.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 040000Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 147.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 48 KM/H. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 145.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 147.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1355KM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 032134UTC SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. A 032337UTC METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES AN ISOLATED PATCH OF 35-40 KNOT WIND BARBS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AS 99W BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (

INVEST 99W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INVEST 97W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24- 36 HOURS WHILE UKMET AND JGSM STILL DISAGREE WITH THE SYSTEM DEPICTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

REMNANTS OF TD 12W. WARNING 5/FINAL ISSUED AT 03/09UTC.

EASTERN PACIFIC. TS 08E(HILDA). WARNING 18 ISSUED AT 04/04UTC. CURRENT INTENSITY IS 45KNOTS. FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KNOTS BY 05/12UTC.

08E(HILDA). GUIDANCE.

TD 10E(IGNACIO). WARNING 10/FINAL ISSUED AT 04/04UTC.

10E(IGNACIO). GUIDANCE.

REMNANTS OF TD 09E. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT RE-ISSUED AT 03/2330UTC.FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 133.2W TO 15.9N 135.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 133.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KM/H. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 09E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6N 133.6W, APPROXIMATELY 2385 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031327UTC SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONTINUOUS FRAGMENTED BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-26C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

REMNANTS OF TD 09E. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 09E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES.

04/00UTC.

04/00UTC.