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Western Pacific: 12W direct interaction with stronger 14W(MIRINAE), Intensifying 15W(NIDA), 13W(LUPIT) forecast to peak by 72h, Eastern Pacific cyclonic duo, 06/03utc updates



06/15UTC. JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 13W,14W AND 15W. WARNING 11/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 06/03UTC ON 12W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 4 SYSTEMS.
06/15UTC. JTWC ARE ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 13W,14W AND 15W. WARNING 11/FINAL WAS ISSUED AT 06/03UTC ON 12W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 4 SYSTEMS.
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 JTWC PH
ILES SOEURS
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TD 12W. WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 06/03UTC.REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 134.5E. 06AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 KM SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 29 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI, AS WELL AS THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE DOMINANT TS 14W, WHICH IS POSITIONED ABOUT 575KM TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, TD 12W IS BEING ACCELERATED AROUND 14W'S NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION, THERE IS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AMOUNT OF VWS BEING INTRODUCED BY THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING TS 14W TO THE SOUTHWEST IS HINDERING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET.
TD 12W. WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 06/03UTC.REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 31.1N 134.5E. 06AUG21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 KM SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 29 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI, AS WELL AS THE PGTW SATELLITE FIX. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE DOMINANT TS 14W, WHICH IS POSITIONED ABOUT 575KM TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, TD 12W IS BEING ACCELERATED AROUND 14W'S NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN ADDITION, THERE IS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AMOUNT OF VWS BEING INTRODUCED BY THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING TS 14W TO THE SOUTHWEST IS HINDERING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET.
PEAK INTENSITY WAS 30KNOTS.
1221073118 170N1527E  15
1221080100 176N1533E  20
1221080106 188N1540E  20
1221080112 196N1546E  20
1221080118 204N1548E  20
1221080200 214N1549E  20
1221080206 229N1542E  25
1221080212 237N1537E  30
1221080218 254N1532E  30
1221080300 266N1521E  30
1221080306 275N1508E  25
1221080312 290N1492E  20
1221080318 292N1481E  20
1221080400 295N1463E  20
1221080406 298N1440E  20
1221080412 297N1421E  20
1221080418 294N1404E  25
1221080500 294N1392E  25
1221080506 294N1379E  25
1221080512 296N1370E  25
1221080518 303N1365E  25
1221080600 311N1350E  25
NNNN

TD 12W. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT TD 12W WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AND BECOME FULLY ABSORBED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TD 12W. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT TD 12W WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AND BECOME FULLY ABSORBED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TS 13W(LUPIT). WARNING 14 ISSUED AT 06/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 13W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVERLAND THROUGH 12H WITH A SLOW, QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION. AFTER 12H, TS 14W SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD BACK OVER WATER THROUGH 36H THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN. AFTER 36H, TS 13W SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS AT 72H. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU NEAR 96H AND IS EXPECTED TO START INTERACTING WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WEST OF KYUSHU BY 96H AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE JET OVER CENTRAL JAPAN BY 120H.
TS 13W(LUPIT). WARNING 14 ISSUED AT 06/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 13W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVERLAND THROUGH 12H WITH A SLOW, QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION. AFTER 12H, TS 14W SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD BACK OVER WATER THROUGH 36H THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN. AFTER 36H, TS 13W SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS AT 72H. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU NEAR 96H AND IS EXPECTED TO START INTERACTING WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WEST OF KYUSHU BY 96H AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE JET OVER CENTRAL JAPAN BY 120H.
1321080118 207N1087E  15
1321080200 207N1096E  15
1321080206 207N1104E  15
1321080212 210N1117E  20
1321080218 211N1130E  25
1321080300 213N1134E  25
1321080306 215N1138E  30
1321080312 211N1143E  30
1321080318 210N1148E  35
1321080400 213N1156E  35
1321080406 214N1159E  35
1321080412 218N1164E  35
1321080418 224N1168E  40
1321080500 231N1169E  45
1321080506 234N1170E  45
1321080512 237N1172E  40
1321080518 241N1176E  35
1321080600 245N1181E  35
NNNN
 

Western Pacific: 12W direct interaction with stronger 14W(MIRINAE), Intensifying 15W(NIDA), 13W(LUPIT) forecast to peak by 72h, Eastern Pacific cyclonic duo, 06/03utc updates

TS 13W(LUPIT). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKLY- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG, CONVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. A 052250UTC SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPS BROADLY OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS SHALLOW RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE.
TS 13W(LUPIT). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKLY- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG, CONVERGENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT. A 052250UTC SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPS BROADLY OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS SHALLOW RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE.

TS 13W(LUPIT). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. SEVERAL MODELS ARE DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM NEAR TAIWAN AND DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHILE OTHERS ARE RAPIDLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER JAPAN. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS MAINTAINED AND IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FASTER IN THE EXTENSIVE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONG WESTERLIES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
TS 13W(LUPIT). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. SEVERAL MODELS ARE DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM NEAR TAIWAN AND DEVELOPING WEAK CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHILE OTHERS ARE RAPIDLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM OVER JAPAN. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS MAINTAINED AND IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FASTER IN THE EXTENSIVE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS STRONG WESTERLIES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

TS 14W(MIRINAE). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 06/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 14W IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONG BAND OF MONSOONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TS 14W WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THIS FLOW THROUGH 36H AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH 72H AS IT TRACKS UNDER A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. NEAR 72H, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE EAST OF NORTHERN HONSHU. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT AS A GALE FORCE LOW NO LATER THAN 96H.
TS 14W(MIRINAE). WARNING 8 ISSUED AT 06/03UTC.THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 14W IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONG BAND OF MONSOONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TS 14W WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THIS FLOW THROUGH 36H AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH 72H AS IT TRACKS UNDER A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. NEAR 72H, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE EAST OF NORTHERN HONSHU. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT AS A GALE FORCE LOW NO LATER THAN 96H.
1421080300 243N1235E  20
1421080306 243N1243E  20
1421080312 244N1250E  20
1421080318 246N1256E  20
1421080400 250N1262E  25
1421080406 253N1264E  25
1421080412 255N1265E  25
1421080418 260N1267E  25
1421080500 265N1271E  25
1421080506 269N1281E  30
1421080512 269N1292E  35
1421080518 269N1303E  35
1421080600 270N1313E  35

Western Pacific: 12W direct interaction with stronger 14W(MIRINAE), Intensifying 15W(NIDA), 13W(LUPIT) forecast to peak by 72h, Eastern Pacific cyclonic duo, 06/03utc updates

TS 14W(MIRINAE). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI. A 060035UTC ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE, A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION.
TS 14W(MIRINAE). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI. A 060035UTC ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE, A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IS LIMITING DEEP CONVECTION.

TS 14W(MIRINAE). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK SCENARIO WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH A 240KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 48H NEAR THE KANTO PLAIN. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) STRIKE PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH PROBABILITY (70-80 PERCENT). ADDITIONALLY, IMPROVED INITIAL POSITION AND NEAR-TERM MOTION ANALYSIS, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS MEDIUM. JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A RANGE OF 45-60 KNOTS AT 48H.
TS 14W(MIRINAE). MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK SCENARIO WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH A 240KM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT 48H NEAR THE KANTO PLAIN. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE (EPS) STRIKE PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH PROBABILITY (70-80 PERCENT). ADDITIONALLY, IMPROVED INITIAL POSITION AND NEAR-TERM MOTION ANALYSIS, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS MEDIUM. JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A RANGE OF 45-60 KNOTS AT 48H.

TS 15W(NIDA). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 06/03UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: DUE TO THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SHIFT MORE EASTWARD THEREAFTER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL 36H AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) WILL BE 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SHARP INTENSIFICATION TO THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY 24H. AT 36H THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS TO AN AREA OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER 48H, TS NIDA WILL MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 48 HOURS AND COMPLETE BY 72 HOURS AS TS NIDA INTERACTS WITH THE POLAR FRONT. THE JTWC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
TS 15W(NIDA). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 06/03UTC.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: DUE TO THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION, THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 15W (NIDA) WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SHIFT MORE EASTWARD THEREAFTER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW UNTIL 36H AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) WILL BE 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SHARP INTENSIFICATION TO THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY 24H. AT 36H THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS TO AN AREA OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER 48H, TS NIDA WILL MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 48 HOURS AND COMPLETE BY 72 HOURS AS TS NIDA INTERACTS WITH THE POLAR FRONT. THE JTWC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
1521080218 201N1422E  15
1521080300 206N1429E  15
1521080306 213N1438E  15
1521080312 221N1449E  15
1521080318 228N1458E  15
1521080400 252N1470E  20
1521080406 274N1477E  20
1521080412 288N1480E  35
1521080418 302N1477E  35
1521080500 315N1477E  40
1521080506 325N1477E  40
1521080512 336N1482E  40
1521080518 345N1491E  40
1521080600 354N1499E  50
NNNN

Western Pacific: 12W direct interaction with stronger 14W(MIRINAE), Intensifying 15W(NIDA), 13W(LUPIT) forecast to peak by 72h, Eastern Pacific cyclonic duo, 06/03utc updates

TS 15W(NIDA). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 052106UTC SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY WEST OF THE LLCC AND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 060032UTC ASCAT-B DIRECT PASS REVEALS A 40-45 KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND LOWER WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE 060032UTC ASCAT PASS AND MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
TS 15W(NIDA). SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 052106UTC SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY WEST OF THE LLCC AND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 060032UTC ASCAT-B DIRECT PASS REVEALS A 40-45 KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND LOWER WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE 060032UTC ASCAT PASS AND MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.

TS 15W(NIDA).MODEL DISCUSSION: MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT 72H FOR FORECAST TRACK, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS, THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW ICNW AFTERWARDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTI-MODEL DISAGREEMENTS, WHICH LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST INTENSITY.
TS 15W(NIDA).MODEL DISCUSSION: MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT 72H FOR FORECAST TRACK, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS, THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW ICNW AFTERWARDS TO ACCOUNT FOR MULTI-MODEL DISAGREEMENTS, WHICH LENDS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST INTENSITY.

06/0350UTC. 12W EXPERIENCING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH STRONGER 14W. 15W INTENSIFYING. 13W FORECAST TO PEAK BY 72H.
06/0350UTC. 12W EXPERIENCING DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH STRONGER 14W. 15W INTENSIFYING. 13W FORECAST TO PEAK BY 72H.

TD 08E(HILDA). WARNING 26 ISSUED AT 06/04UTC.
TD 08E(HILDA). WARNING 26 ISSUED AT 06/04UTC.
0821072806 117N1025W  15
0821072812 117N1033W  15
0821072818 117N1041W  20
0821072900 117N1049W  25
0821072906 117N1058W  25
0821072912 117N1067W  25
0821072918 118N1075W  30
0821073000 118N1084W  30
0821073006 118N1100W  30
0821073012 117N1117W  30
0821073018 119N1130W  40
0821073100 129N1140W  40
0821073106 132N1152W  45
0821073112 136N1162W  55
0821073118 140N1174W  60
0821080100 142N1183W  75
0821080106 144N1190W  75
0821080112 145N1197W  75
0821080118 146N1204W  75
0821080200 148N1211W  70
0821080206 150N1217W  70
0821080212 153N1222W  70
0821080218 156N1226W  70
0821080300 162N1231W  65
0821080306 168N1237W  60
0821080312 173N1243W  60
0821080318 176N1248W  50
0821080400 182N1255W  45
0821080406 186N1262W  40
0821080412 189N1270W  40
0821080418 192N1276W  40
0821080500 194N1282W  40
0821080506 200N1288W  40
0821080512 207N1297W  35
0821080518 213N1307W  35
0821080600 220N1317W  30
NNNN
 

TS 09E(JIMENA). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 06/04UTC.
TS 09E(JIMENA). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 06/04UTC.
0921072512 137N1116W  15
0921072518 137N1124W  15
0921072600 136N1130W  15
0921072606 135N1135W  15
0921072612 133N1140W  20
0921072618 132N1147W  20
0921072700 131N1155W  20
0921072706 130N1161W  20
0921072712 128N1166W  20
0921072718 125N1169W  20
0921072800 125N1175W  25
0921072806 130N1184W  25
0921072812 134N1190W  25
0921072818 137N1199W  25
0921072900 137N1210W  30
0921072906 136N1220W  30
0921072912 134N1226W  30
0921072918 132N1233W  30
0921073000 130N1238W  30
0921073006 127N1244W  30
0921073012 125N1250W  30
0921073018 124N1256W  25
0921073100 122N1263W  25
0921073106 120N1269W  25
0921073112 120N1276W  25
0921073118 115N1280W  25
0921080100 115N1275W  25
0921080106 118N1270W  25
0921080112 122N1272W  25
0921080118 122N1278W  25
0921080200 122N1286W  25
0921080206 123N1296W  25
0921080212 126N1302W  25
0921080218 128N1311W  30
0921080300 130N1319W  30
0921080306 133N1326W  30
0921080312 135N1331W  30
0921080318 136N1336W  30
0921080400 136N1343W  30
0921080406 137N1348W  30
0921080412 140N1352W  30
0921080418 144N1356W  30
0921080500 149N1360W  30
0921080506 153N1364W  30
0921080512 157N1368W  35
0921080518 162N1372W  35
0921080600 167N1375W  35
NNNN

06/00UTC.
06/00UTC.


06/00UTC.
06/00UTC.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, August 6th 2021 à 08:00
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