West Pacific: 94P could develop after 24hours while approaching east coast of Australia. 92W still under watch.


92W is still MEDIUM for the next 24hours despite models showing little development.


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/Timor-Sea-Cyclone-LILI-26S-is-weakening-maybe-quickly-next-12-24hours_a811.html
https://www.meteo974.re/South-Indian-cyclone-LILI-26S-getting-a-little-bit-stronger-potential-threat-to-East-Timor-with-heavy-rain-and-strong_a810.html
https://www.meteo974.re/West-Pacific-areas-under-watch-north-and-south-of-the-equator_a808.html


INVEST 92W

As of 06:00 UTC May 10, 2019:
Location: 6.0°N 160.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3N 161.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 160.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 100421Z SSMI 85GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE
NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE LOW (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH SUPPORTIVE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS) REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

INVEST 94P

As of 06:00 UTC May 10, 2019:
Location: 12.8°S 159.8°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 100600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.1S 161.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY
200 NM SOUTH OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100310Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS
A MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE (15-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 94P WILL TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH
AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 92W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 94P
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 94P

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 94P
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR INVEST 94P

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 10 Mai 2019 à 11:38