meteo





West Pacific: areas under watch north and south of the equator


92W: MEDIUM for the next 24hours


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/South-Indian-cyclone-LILI-26S-has-formed-near-Timor-potential-threat-of-strong-winds-and-heavy-rain-to-the-island_a807.html
https://www.meteo974.re/2PM-PH--06UTC-90W-near-Palau-no-longer-suspect-92W-models-less-aggressive-but-area-still-under-close-watch_a804.html
https://www.meteo974.re/2-weeks-outlook-MJO-over-the-West-Pacific-and-moving-eastward-92W-likely-to-develop-and-approach-the-Guam-area_a802.html


INVEST 92W

As of 06:00 UTC May 09, 2019:
Location: 6.3°N 161.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
CHANCES OF BECOMING A TD NEXT 24HOURS: MEDIUM

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 162.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 161.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 090232Z AMSR2 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WEAK WESTERLY
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 CELSIUS)
REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT MAINTAINING NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

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INVEST 90W

As of 00:00 UTC May 09, 2019:
Location: 9.6°N 134.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
CHANCES OF BECOMING A TD NEXT 24HOURS: VERY LOW


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INVEST 94P

As of 06:00 UTC May 09, 2019:
Location: 11.1°S 161.3°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
CHANCES OF BECOMING A TC NEXT 24HOURS: LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.1S 161.3E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090433Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A POORLY-ORGANIZED BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED, FLARING CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT
PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 94P BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH SUPPORTIVE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS)
SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
THAT 94P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

 

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 92W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 92W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 92W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 92W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 90W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 90W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 90W
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 90W

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 94P
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 94P

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 94P
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR 94P

00UTC
00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 9 Mai 2019 à 15:59