Weakened 08S(DANILO) forecast to re-intensify and approach Mauritius/Réunion islands, 08/15utc update


AS OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVES OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
OF 40 KNOTS BY 48H.


AS OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVES OVER  THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK  OF 40 KNOTS BY 48H.
AS OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS BY 48H.
08S (DANILO),LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS/MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
2021 JAN 08 1440UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 19
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 08, 2021:
Location: 18.0°S 66.6°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

08/14UTC.CONVECTION WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING UP AGAIN VERY RECENTLY.
08/14UTC.CONVECTION WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING UP AGAIN VERY RECENTLY.

THERE IS MINIMAL  OUTFLOW ALOFT, EVIDENCED BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NO  DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THIS LACK OF OUTFLOW HAS HINDERED  SUSTAINED CORE CONVECTION AND LED TO THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND
THERE IS MINIMAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, EVIDENCED BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING NO DISTINCT OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THIS LACK OF OUTFLOW HAS HINDERED SUSTAINED CORE CONVECTION AND LED TO THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND


SHEAR TENDENCY IS FAVOURABLE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates IS FAVOURABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER HAVING BEEN NEUTRAL SINCE 08/00UTC.
SHEAR TENDENCY IS FAVOURABLE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates IS FAVOURABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER HAVING BEEN NEUTRAL SINCE 08/00UTC.

08/1137UTC. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING AGAIN NEAR 18°SOUTH.
08/1137UTC. CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING AGAIN NEAR 18°SOUTH.

08/06UTC. EUROPEAN MODEL IS NORTH OF CONSENSUS.
08/06UTC. EUROPEAN MODEL IS NORTH OF CONSENSUS.

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER  AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 340KM SPREAD AT 72H,  INCREASING TO 585KM AT 120H. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS A  WHOLE HAS SLIGHTLY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A CHANGE IN  THE STORM MOTION OF THE PREVIOUS 12-HOURS.THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK  REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE ECMWF  MODEL SOLUTION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 340KM SPREAD AT 72H, INCREASING TO 585KM AT 120H. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS A WHOLE HAS SLIGHTLY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A CHANGE IN THE STORM MOTION OF THE PREVIOUS 12-HOURS.THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HWRF DEPICTS AN INTENSITY SPIKE BETWEEN 48 AND 72HOURS.
HWRF DEPICTS AN INTENSITY SPIKE BETWEEN 48 AND 72HOURS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 8 Janvier 2021 à 18:31