meteo





Typhoon duo. Lekima intensifying to near STY level and striking the Yaeyama shortly before 24h


LeKima(10W): Warning 16/JTWC. Krosa(11W): Warning 9/JTWC


LEKIMA(10W): WARNING 16. PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 125KNOTS FORECAST IN 24H AS THE EYE TRACKS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO ISHIGAKI-SHIMA
LEKIMA(10W): WARNING 16. PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 125KNOTS FORECAST IN 24H AS THE EYE TRACKS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO ISHIGAKI-SHIMA
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LEKIMA(10W)
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:

Location: 22.1°N 126.4°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Gusts: 135 kt ( 250km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 934 mb
CATEGORY US: 3
INTENSIFYING

WDPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON A 7 NM EYE IN ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE EIR REVEALS A LONG RAIN BAND THAT EXTENDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS FALLS
BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITIES OF T5.5-T6.0 (102-115 KTS).
FOR THE PAST 42 HOURS, TY 10W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS: RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST). TY 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, START TURNING MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 36
AS THE STR SHIFTS TO THE EAST, AND MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI
ON A NORTHWARD TRACK AROUND TAU 72. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, REDUCED
OUTFLOW AND LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN TY 10W TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU
72. WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TAIWAN AND CHINA TO THE FORECAST
TRACK, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY DUE TO
THE IMPACT OF LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH A BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS
BECOMES EVIDENT BY TAU 48, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE SPREAD IS 141 NM AT TAU 72.   
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 120 AS
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
PRIMARILY TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM STRADDLES THE CHINESE
COAST. BY TAU 120, TY 10W SHOULD BE REDUCED TO 40 KTS OVER THE
YELLOW SEA. NUMERICAL MODELS BIFURCATE ABOUT TWO GROUPINGS, WITH
ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND NAVGEM CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK AND THE REMAINING MEMBERS GROUPED ABOUT 170 NM TO THE
WEST BY TAU 120. IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE WESTERN GROUPING OF
MODELS, IT WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
TAU 120. BASED ON THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TY KROSA(11W)
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:
Location: 21.8°N 140.8°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt (160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 969 mb

WDPN33 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON AN INTERMITTENT, DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. OF NOTE, THERE IS A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND AND, PERIODICALLY, ALMOST
ENCAPSULATING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS FALLS
BETWEEN MUTLI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T4.0-T4.5 (65-77 KTS). WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS, AND LIGHT (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. WITH OTHERWISE VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, AN INDUCED TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS
CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE THAT IS LIKELY INHIBITING
MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TY 11W IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING STRETCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH,
EAST, AND SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ON A REVERSE S
PATTERN UNDER THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP
THE SYSTEM NEAR IWO TO FOR THE DURATION OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. BY TAU 72, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL REORIENT
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT AROUND 7 KTS.
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO
85 KTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK SCENARIO, HOWEVER, A BIFURCATION
BECOMES EVIDENT AROUND TAU 48 WITH NAVGEM, GFS, JGSM, AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MAKING A WIDER TURN TO THE EAST THAN ECMWF, UKMET,
GALWEM, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
BIFURCATION.
   C. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH A GROUPING CONSISTING OF THE GFS, NAVGEM AND JGSM
MODELS DEPICTING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO POLEWARD TRACK AND A
SECOND GROUPING CONSISTING OF THE ECMWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND UKMET
MODEL DEPICTING A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IN BOTH SCENARIOS,
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS IN THE NEAR TERM IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, THE ECMWF MODEL GROUP INDICATES THAT, IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH, A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TY 11W AND TAKE OVER AS
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING THE SYSTEM ON
A TRAJECTORY TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MODEL GROUP. THE ECMWF
GROUPING APPEARS MORE PROBABLE GIVEN AN ANTICIPATED ZONAL MID-
LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND THE CURRENT JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TO REFLECT THIS MORE
LIKELY SITUATION. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. GIVEN THE NOTED BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. POOR OUTFLOW AND ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY REDUCE INTENSITY TO 65 KTS BY TAU 120.//
NNNN
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REMNANTS OF FRANCISCO( 09W)
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:

Location: 41.1°N 131.5°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 96W
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:
Location: 16.1°N 117.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 071900
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 117.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY
205 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGHLY SHEARED PERSISTENT CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET
BY HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ABOVE THE
LLCC, LARGELY DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM TY 10W TO THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL BE ABSORBED BY TY 10W
BETWEEN TAU 24-48 AS 96W TRACKS NORTHEAST AND 10W CONTINUES TRACKING
TOWARDS TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 995
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

 

WARNING 16/JTWC
WARNING 16/JTWC

KROSA(11W): WARNING 9/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 85KNOTS FORECAST IN 48H
KROSA(11W): WARNING 9/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 85KNOTS FORECAST IN 48H

07/21UTC. LEKIMA(10W)
07/21UTC. LEKIMA(10W)

07/21UTC. TYs LEKIMA(10W) AND KROSA(11W)
07/21UTC. TYs LEKIMA(10W) AND KROSA(11W)

07/2030UTC. TYs LEKIMA(10W) AND KROSA(11W)
07/2030UTC. TYs LEKIMA(10W) AND KROSA(11W)


INVEST 96W: DOWNGRADED TO LOW
INVEST 96W: DOWNGRADED TO LOW


10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 8 Août 2019 à 00:48