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JTWC IS ISSUING 6 HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 17W. 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON 01C AND 96W
WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 8.5N 154.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 144 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM
(TS) 17W (SAUDEL) WITH A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS ELONGATED IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTIONS. DEEP
CONVECTION WAS PRESENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE UP UNTIL
190500Z, AROUND THE TIME OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM FOR THE
AREA. A 190305Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A DEFINED BAND
OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER AND LOOSE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN ANIMATED MSI AND THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW ASSESSED TO BE FAVORABLE,
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING PATTERN, PRIMARILY DRIVEN
BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 30 KTS AT 190540Z
CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 190610Z
CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 190610Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 190305Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 190610Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 17W (SAUDEL) HAS STARTED TO TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
NER POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CURRENTLY
POSITIONED SOUTH OF HONSHU WEAKENS AND RETREATS NORTHWARD, LETTING 17W
GAIN LATITUDE. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SEPARATE STR TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD, BECOMING THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CPA TO SAIPAN CONTINUES TO BE AROUND 140 NM OCCURRING AT 220600Z.
THE TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
72 AS RIDGING EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF 17W. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
NORTH LESSENS, ALLOWING FOR THE CORE OF THE VORTEX TO MOISTEN. ALONG
WITH THE AXISYMMETRIZATION OF THE WIND FIELD, 17W IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO AROUND 70 KTS. A MORE RAPID RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IF THE SYMMETRIZATION
PROCESS OCCURS MORE QUICKLY. AFTER TAU 48, 17W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TAKES ADVANTAGE OF STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (OVER 30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES EAST OF THE MARIANAS. 17W IS THEN
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF AROUND 125 KTS AT TAU 96
WITH A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENTER
AN AREA OF INCREASED NORTHERLY SHEAR AND LOWER OHC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS PRESENT. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS
MEASURED TO BE ABOUT 100NM. AFTER TAU 72, NAVGEM BECOMES A POLEWARD
OUTLIER, TRACKING THE VORTEX CLOSER TO IWO TO. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM,
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 210 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72
AND THEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 120 TO OFFSET NAVGEM.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN LESS AGREEMENT THIS MODEL RUN. MULTIPLE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS HAVE TRIGGERED, AND THEY SUGGEST A MUCH
QUICKER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. THE RI AIDS ARE
GROUPED AROUND A 95 KNOT INTENSITY AT TAU 48 WHILE THE NON-RI AIDS
(SUCH AS HAFS-A) ARE AROUND 55-65 KTS. GIVEN THE ASYMMETRY IN THE WIND
FIELD, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE NON-RI AIDS
THROUGH TAU 48. MODELS THEN GENERALLY AGREE ON RI THROUGH TAU 72. PEAK
INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 105-145 KTS AT TAU 96 WITH CTR1 (COAMPS-TC RI)
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 125 KTS, ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE
TO THE EXPECTED HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MARIANAS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR
004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 8.5N 154.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 144 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL STORM
(TS) 17W (SAUDEL) WITH A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS ELONGATED IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTIONS. DEEP
CONVECTION WAS PRESENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE UP UNTIL
190500Z, AROUND THE TIME OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM FOR THE
AREA. A 190305Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A DEFINED BAND
OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER AND LOOSE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN ANIMATED MSI AND THE AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW ASSESSED TO BE FAVORABLE,
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK STEERING PATTERN, PRIMARILY DRIVEN
BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 30 KTS AT 190540Z
CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 190610Z
CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 190610Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 190305Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 28 KTS AT 190610Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG EQUATORWARD
OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 17W (SAUDEL) HAS STARTED TO TRACK SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
NER POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CURRENTLY
POSITIONED SOUTH OF HONSHU WEAKENS AND RETREATS NORTHWARD, LETTING 17W
GAIN LATITUDE. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SEPARATE STR TO THE NORTHEAST IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD, BECOMING THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE CPA TO SAIPAN CONTINUES TO BE AROUND 140 NM OCCURRING AT 220600Z.
THE TRAJECTORY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
72 AS RIDGING EXTENDS TO THE NORTH OF 17W. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
NORTH LESSENS, ALLOWING FOR THE CORE OF THE VORTEX TO MOISTEN. ALONG
WITH THE AXISYMMETRIZATION OF THE WIND FIELD, 17W IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO AROUND 70 KTS. A MORE RAPID RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME IF THE SYMMETRIZATION
PROCESS OCCURS MORE QUICKLY. AFTER TAU 48, 17W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM TAKES ADVANTAGE OF STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (OVER 30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES EAST OF THE MARIANAS. 17W IS THEN
FORECAST TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF AROUND 125 KTS AT TAU 96
WITH A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENTER
AN AREA OF INCREASED NORTHERLY SHEAR AND LOWER OHC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS PRESENT. THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS
MEASURED TO BE ABOUT 100NM. AFTER TAU 72, NAVGEM BECOMES A POLEWARD
OUTLIER, TRACKING THE VORTEX CLOSER TO IWO TO. DISCOUNTING NAVGEM,
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 210 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72
AND THEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH TAU 120 TO OFFSET NAVGEM.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN LESS AGREEMENT THIS MODEL RUN. MULTIPLE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS HAVE TRIGGERED, AND THEY SUGGEST A MUCH
QUICKER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. THE RI AIDS ARE
GROUPED AROUND A 95 KNOT INTENSITY AT TAU 48 WHILE THE NON-RI AIDS
(SUCH AS HAFS-A) ARE AROUND 55-65 KTS. GIVEN THE ASYMMETRY IN THE WIND
FIELD, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSER TO THE NON-RI AIDS
THROUGH TAU 48. MODELS THEN GENERALLY AGREE ON RI THROUGH TAU 72. PEAK
INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 105-145 KTS AT TAU 96 WITH CTR1 (COAMPS-TC RI)
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 125 KTS, ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE
TO THE EXPECTED HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MARIANAS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
Platform: RCM-2 Acquisition Date: 2026-08-19 07:57:58 UTC Storm Name: WP172026 / SAUDEL
Platform: RCM-2
Acquisition Date: 2026-08-19 07:57:58 UTC
Storm Name: WP172026 / SAUDEL
Storm ID: WP17
Storm Center Longitude: 154.178
Storm Center Latitude: 8.163
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 43.058
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 49.04
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 33.14
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 35.14
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 43.50
RMax (nmi): 5.00 - 39.00
Acquisition Date: 2026-08-19 07:57:58 UTC
Storm Name: WP172026 / SAUDEL
Storm ID: WP17
Storm Center Longitude: 154.178
Storm Center Latitude: 8.163
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 43.058
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 49.04
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 33.14
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 35.14
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 43.50
RMax (nmi): 5.00 - 39.00
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 128.3E, APPROXIMATELY 229 NM SOUTH OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600 NM DIAMETER, WITH ENHANCED WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF TURNING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 TO 30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AREA OF BROAD TROUGHING THAT IS UNLIKELY TO TRANSITION INTO A CONSOLIDATED TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. A 190155Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH EAST OF HAINAN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, IT IS OFFSET BY WARM (29 TO 30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 95W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS HAINAN OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 33.2N 164.1E, APPROXIMATELY 842 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS INVEST 96W WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SPARSE CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THAT IS HEAVILY SHEARED FROM THE SOUTH. THE HIGH SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS CAUSED BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE DIRECTLY TO THE WEST OF 96W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED WINDS OF 35 KTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THUS, 96W IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 96W TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAKENING WIND FIELD DUE TO EXTREME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ANALYZED TO BE HIGHLY UNLIKELY DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS ALONG WITH COOL (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
Platform: RCM-1 Acquisition Date: 2026-08-19 05:19:56 UTC Storm Name: CP012026 / LALA
Platform: RCM-1
Acquisition Date: 2026-08-19 05:19:56 UTC
Storm Name: CP012026 / LALA
Storm ID: CP01
Storm Center Longitude: -168.022
Storm Center Latitude: 19.975
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 40.789
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 54.30
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 36.60
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 43.80
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 105.64
RMax (nmi): 15.00 - 86.00
Acquisition Date: 2026-08-19 05:19:56 UTC
Storm Name: CP012026 / LALA
Storm ID: CP01
Storm Center Longitude: -168.022
Storm Center Latitude: 19.975
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 40.789
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 54.30
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 36.60
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 43.80
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 105.64
RMax (nmi): 15.00 - 86.00
