Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172026 260819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50    154.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  19.6  16.7  15.8  15.3   9.8  10.5   9.5  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  12.0  60.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 116.0 117.0 124.0 145.0 191.0 146.0 121.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        4.6%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       28.0%       50.1%       39.1%
 30kt / 24h       12.8%       31.7%       22.2%
 35kt / 24h        6.7%       31.7%       19.2%
 40kt / 24h        6.7%       29.9%       18.3%
 45kt / 36h       26.9%       60.5%       43.7%
 55kt / 36h       12.8%       38.1%       25.4%
 55kt / 48h       48.7%       58.3%       53.5%
 70kt / 48h       26.2%       50.0%       38.1%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       82.8%       72.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.20

 WP172026 260819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50    154.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  19.6  16.7  15.8  15.3   9.8  10.5   9.5  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  70.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%