meteo





Typhoon Lingling: landfall in NKorea in 24h. Faxai: bearing down on Tokyo in 48h as a Typhoon



Météo974

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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LINGLING ( 15W)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 06, 2019:
Location: 29.6°N 125.3°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Gusts: 135 kt ( 250km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 936 mb
CATEGORY US: 3

WDPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM SOUTH
OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 15W
WITH A WELL-DEFINED 8-NM EYE FEATURE LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. A 060507Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH SHARPLY OUTLINED RAIN BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE EYE AND A VERY DEEP EYEWALL OVER 50 PERCENT OF THE
STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK FINAL T AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-6.0
(90-115 KTS) THAT INDICATES SUBTLE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE
PRIOR FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS); HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) REMAINS FAVORABLE AT 28-30 CELSIUS. TY 15W IS
TRACKING NORTHWARD, TRANSITING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. PRIOR TO TAU 24, TY 15W WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT NORTHWARD
TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE TRACK WILL
SHIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF NORTH KOREA. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TY 15W AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL CAUSE MORE RAPID WEAKENING. AROUND
TAU 24, TY 15W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE TAU 36
POSITION SHOWS AN INCREASING TRACK SPEED AND WIND RADII AS THE
SYSTEM COMPLETES ETT AND TRANSFORMS INTO A COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, THUS THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS FAXAI (14W)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 06, 2019:
Location: 23.8°N 150.0°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts : 55kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
EAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
060454Z 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
LOCATED UNDER FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, PROVIDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KTS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND TROUGHING TO
THE SOUTH OF TS 14W. THESE FEATURES CREATE SUBSIDENCE AND RESTRICTED
OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM, LIMITING VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION. THE WEAKENED TUTT CELL IS ALLOWING SOME
POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP TO ACCOMPANY THE SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW.
TS 14W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT
WITH VALUES OF 10-20 KTS AND CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER WARM (30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH IS PROVIDING THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. BEFORE BEGINNING TO ROUND THE STR AXIS NEAR TAU 36, TS 14W
WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48, TS 14W WILL MAKE A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST,
MAKING LANDFALL OVER HONSHU, JAPAN NEAR TOKYO SHORTLY AFTER
RECURVING. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE AS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED, ALLOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80 KTS BY TAU 48. THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL ENHANCE THIS
OUTFLOW AS WELL. AFTER LANDFALL, TS 14W WILL WEAKEN TO 65 KTS PRIOR
TO RE-EMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM
(EASTERN OUTLIER), DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. AROUND TAU 72, TS 14W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DECAY RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST, TRANSFORMING
INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU
96. NUMERICAL MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD ALONG-TRACK AND FAIR CROSS-TRACK
AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE
TO THE TRACK BEYOND TAU 72.//
NNNN
----------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 95W
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 06, 2019:

Location: 10.4°N 144.0°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

 

15W: WARNING 18
15W: WARNING 18

14W: WARNING 19
14W: WARNING 19

06/09UTC. RAMMB
06/09UTC. RAMMB

Typhoon Lingling: landfall in NKorea in 24h. Faxai: bearing down on Tokyo in 48h as a Typhoon

15W: 06/06UTC
15W: 06/06UTC

14W: 06/06UTC
14W: 06/06UTC

14W: 06/0212UTC
14W: 06/0212UTC

15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 6 Septembre 2019 à 12:55