Typhoon Lekima powerful category 4 peaking and tracking over the Yaeyama within 18/24hours


10W: Warning 17/JTWC. 11W: Warning 10/JTWC


LEKIMA(10W): WARNING 17/JTWC. FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN 12HOURS WHILE TRACKING OVER THE YAEYAMA ISLANDS
LEKIMA(10W): WARNING 17/JTWC. FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY WITHIN 12HOURS WHILE TRACKING OVER THE YAEYAMA ISLANDS
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LEKIMA(10W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 08, 2019:

Location: 22.7°N 126.0°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt ( 215km/h)
Gusts: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 mb
CATEGORY US: 4
INTENSIFYING

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON A 8 NM EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS) BUT BELOW
THE RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS) DUE TO THERE HAVING BEEN
ONLY MILD IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. TY 10W NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ALTHOUGH
THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT THE INTENSITY UNTIL LAND
INTERACTION BECOMES A FACTOR. CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS INCLUDE RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TY
10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 24, TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR, START A MORE
NORTHWARD TURN PRIOR TO TAU 36 AS THE STR SHIFTS TO THE EAST, AND
MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI ON A NORTHWARD TRACK SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 48. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, REDUCED OUTFLOW AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN TY 10W TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72. WITH THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF TAIWAN AND CHINA TO THE FORECAST TRACK, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCED LAND INTERACTION. ALTHOUGH ERROR GROWTH IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE STEADILY INCREASES AFTER TAU 12, SPREAD ONLY REACHES 170 NM
AT TAU 72 AND THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
PRIOR TO TAU 120 AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE PRIMARILY TO LAND INTERACTION AS
THE SYSTEM STRADDLES THE CHINESE COAST ALTHOUGH EVERY ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTOR WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE. BY TAU 120, TY 10W SHOULD BE
REDUCED TO 35 KTS AS IT MAKES SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF
CHINA. NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TURN BUT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE TURN INCREASE THE SPREAD TO
OVER 360 NM BY TAU 120. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL MODELS KEEP 10W OVER
CHINA AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48. IF 10W REMAINS OVER LAND
AFTER INITIAL LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
TAU 120. FOR THESE REASONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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TY KROSA(11W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 08, 2019:
Location: 22.0°N 140.5°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt (170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING

WDPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (KROSA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON A PARTIALLY OBSCURED EYE FEATURE IN ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF THE
EYEWALL AND THAT IS LIKELY INHIBITING THE EYE FROM BECOMING WELL
FORMED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
FIX INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES, RJTD, AND PGTW OF T4.5 (77 KTS).
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS, AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. AN INDUCED TROUGH TO THE
NORTH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE THAT IS LIKELY
OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TY 11W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
STRETCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH, EAST, AND SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ON A REVERSE S
PATTERN UNDER THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP
THE SYSTEM NEAR IWO TO FOR THE DURATION OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. BY TAU 72, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WILL REORIENT
SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT AROUND 7 KTS.
THE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION TO
80 KTS BY TAU 12, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARIGNAL
OVERALL AND THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR STEADY STATE
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
WITH THE SHAPE OF THE TRACK. NOTABLY, THERE IS A CLUSTER OF MEMBERS
(ECMWF, GALWEM, AND UKMET) ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
SOLUTIONS. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED WEST OF THE
CONSENSUS TO FAVOR THAT CLUSTER WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE
SPREAD.
   C. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN CLUSTER REMAINS, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, OVERALL
DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
REDUCE INTENSITY TO 60 KTS BY TAU 120. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
COMPLEX ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO AGREE THAT RIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN IN THE NEAR TERM IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE WESTERN
CLUSTER INDICATES THAT, IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, A RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TY 11W AND TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM. THE WESTERN CLUSTER APPEARS MORE PROBABLE AND THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEDGED WEST OF THE CONSENSUS. GIVEN
THE SPREAD IS 390 NM AT TAU 120, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LOW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. //
NNNN
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REMNANTS OF FRANCISCO( 09W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 08, 2019:

Location: 41.9°N 134.1°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb

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INVEST 96W
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 08, 2019:
Location: 16.5°N 118.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb

 

10W: WARNING 17/JTWC
10W: WARNING 17/JTWC

KROSA(11W): WARNING 10/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 80KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 12H
KROSA(11W): WARNING 10/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 80KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 12H

08/0330UTC. LEKIMA(10W)
08/0330UTC. LEKIMA(10W)

08/03UTC. LEKIMA(10W).
08/03UTC. LEKIMA(10W).

08/0330UTC
08/0330UTC


07/2356UTC. KROSA(11W)
07/2356UTC. KROSA(11W)

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 8 Août 2019 à 08:00