Typhoon 25W(MALOU) reached CAT 2 but now rapidly becoming extra-tropical/Invest 93S up-graded to Medium, 29/0330utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 25W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 25W AND 93S.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR MORE QUICKLY, COMPLETING WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FORECAST DISCUSSION: RAPID WEAKENING IS BEGINNING AS TYPHOON 25W (MALOU) MERGES WITH THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS, WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A QUICK TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE VORTEX WILL LOSE VERTICAL COHERENCE BY THAT TIME AS IT BECOMES BAROCLINIC IN NATURE. THE JTWC FORECAST TERMINATES AT 24 HOURS AS MALOU BECOMES A GALE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF HOKKAIDO.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE TYPHOON IS NOW IN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION STAGE, WITH THE INNER CORE QUICKLY APPROACHING A SHARPLY-DEFINED COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH. THE COOL, DRY MID-LATITUDE AIR MASS TO THE WEST CAN NOW BE SEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, DENOTED BY A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE EYE STRUCTURE HAS COLLAPSED, AND A RAGGED AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOW OBSCURES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) PASS FROM 282021Z INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 80 KT AT THE TIME, AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE LOWER AT 75 KT DUE TO THE ONGOING DECAY IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.6S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 87.1E, APPROXIMATELY 1610 KM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED. A 290028Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS WELL AS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY STRONG (30+ KT) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT 93S WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

29/03UTC.