Typhoon 14W(BEBINCA) making landfall near SHANGHAI//INVEST 97W//INVEST 98W//TD 09E(ILEANA)// 1515utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 14W. 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON INVEST 93B.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CORE, WITH A MOSTLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND SPIRAL BANDING, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 151056Z TROPICS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A 25 NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING SEPARATED TO THE EAST, EXTENDING SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH HAS FUELED THE RECENT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65 TO 77 KNOTS), AND A 151200Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOWN BELOW ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, RANGING FROM 77-90 KNOTS.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) 14W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 14W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 12, VERY CLOSE TO SHANGHAI AT TYPHOON STRENGTH. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND WHILE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, WITH A 15 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 12, DIVERGING TO ABOUT 50 NM AT TAU 36. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING THE RAPID WEAKENING PHASE AFTER TAU 12.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 143.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BELT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FLARING ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE SEA, FROM THE PHILIPPINES TO THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR GUAM ARE DRIFTING CYCLONICALLY, CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICTING BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING. EXISTING DEEP CONVECTION IS CHAOTIC AND STRONGLY SHEARED BY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A 150347Z AMSR2 IMAGE FURTHER REVEALS WEAK AND VERY FRAGMENTED BANDING, WITH NOTHING WELL DEFINED AT PRESENT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE IN THIS VICINITY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING CONSOLIDATED IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MARIANAS AS A WESTERLY WIND BURST CAUSES SPIKING VORTICITY VALUES ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES IN HOW QUICKLY OR DEEPLY TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS, BUT THERE IS CONSISTENTLY FAIR AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS AND HEAD GENERALLY NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME PART OF A MUCH LARGER REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC TROUGHING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES IN HOW QUICKLY OR DEEPLY TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS, BUT THERE IS CONSISTENTLY FAIR AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL TRACK AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS AND HEAD GENERALLY NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCES OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME PART OF A MUCH LARGER REGION OF BROAD CYCLONIC TROUGHING

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 151232Z ASCAT-C BULLSEYE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH PREDOMINANTLY 15-20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SLOW WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD LUZON WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT.