THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 54.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 53.5E, APPROXIMATELY 505KM NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 212158Z AMSR2 89HZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31C), BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
CLICK ON THE IMAGERY BELOW TO ANIMATE AND ENLARGE IT.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
22/0440UTC.
