Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for INVEST 96S// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks// 0509utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON INVEST 96S

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 119.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 119.3E, APPROXIMATELY 687 NM WEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION, DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10-15 KTS) COUPLED WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM MAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS IT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS.