FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4S 57.7E TO 17.4S 52.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 210100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 24 KM/H. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 58.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1045 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS FEEDING INTO A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 201819Z ASCAT METOP- C PASS INDICATED THE LLC IS CONSOLIDATED AND WELL DEFINED WITH ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 30KTS CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C ARE ALSO FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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201819Z ASCAT METOP- C PASS INDICATED THE LLC IS CONSOLIDATED AND WELL DEFINED WITH ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 30KTS CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN QUADRANTS.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD.
