TC 26S LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TIMOR. FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEXT 12/24H
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/Timor-Sea-Cyclone-LILI-26S-is-weakening-maybe-quickly-next-12-24hours_a811.html
https://www.meteo974.re/West-Pacific-94P-could-develop-after-24hours-while-approaching-east-coast-of-Australia-92W-still-under-watch_a814.html
Location: 9.3°S 128.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WEAKENING
REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101248Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30 KNOTS) BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN UPPER- AIR SOUNDINGS IN THE VICINITY, WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST TIMOR NEAR TAU 24. TC 26S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// NNNN
https://www.meteo974.re/
https://www.meteo974.re/Timor-Sea-Cyclone-LILI-26S-is-weakening-maybe-quickly-next-12-24hours_a811.html
https://www.meteo974.re/West-Pacific-94P-could-develop-after-24hours-while-approaching-east-coast-of-Australia-92W-still-under-watch_a814.html
Location: 9.3°S 128.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WEAKENING
REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101248Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30 KNOTS) BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN UPPER- AIR SOUNDINGS IN THE VICINITY, WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST TIMOR NEAR TAU 24. TC 26S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// NNNN
WARNING 6/JTWC
13UTC: EXPOSED CENTER FLARING CONVECTION
12UTC
06UTC
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
