Timor Sea: 35knots Cyclone LILI(26S) should be weakening due to dry air in the atmosphere and land interaction with East Timor


Warning 6/JTWC


TC 26S LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TIMOR. FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEXT 12/24H
TC 26S LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TIMOR. FORECAST TO WEAKEN NEXT 12/24H
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Previous related publications: https://www.meteo974.re/Timor-Sea-Cyclone-LILI-26S-is-weakening-maybe-quickly-next-12-24hours_a811.html
https://www.meteo974.re/West-Pacific-94P-could-develop-after-24hours-while-approaching-east-coast-of-Australia-92W-still-under-watch_a814.html

TC LILI(26S)
As of 12:00 UTC May 10, 2019:

Location: 9.3°S 128.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WEAKENING


REMARKS:  101500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.2E.  TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM  NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT  03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101248Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A  PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED DEEP  CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD  CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE  INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER  THAN THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30  KNOTS) BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS  INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND  SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS  EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN UPPER-  AIR SOUNDINGS IN THE VICINITY, WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE  MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS  IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST  TIMOR NEAR TAU 24. TC 26S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR  ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL  GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE  UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE  HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND  110900Z.//  NNNN   
     

WARNING 6/JTWC
WARNING 6/JTWC

 

13UTC: EXPOSED CENTER FLARING CONVECTION
13UTC: EXPOSED CENTER FLARING CONVECTION

12UTC
12UTC

06UTC
06UTC

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 10 Mai 2019 à 19:04