TY Kammuri(29W), Invest 95W, TCs 06A & 07A, Invest 91S & 92S: Updates at 03/18UTC



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY Kammuri (29W)
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:

Location: 13.8°N 118.8°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt (150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
CATEGORY US: 1



INVEST 95W
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:

Location: 5.2°N 146.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
LOW
ABPW10 PGTW 030600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3N 148.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 147.6E, APPROXIMATELY 596
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 030000Z 89GHZ METOP-B IMAGE REVEAL AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD FLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY
HIGH (25-35 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MARGINAL TO NO DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

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NORTH INDIAN

TC 06A
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:

Location: 7.1°N 57.6°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 80km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb

TC 07A( INVEST 91A)
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:

Location: 13.5°N 69.6°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 80km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH INDIAN

INVEST 91S
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:

Location: 6.3°S 52.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
MEDIUM
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.4S 55.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 51.0E, APPROXIMATELY 886 NM
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED LOW
LEVEL BANDING TO THE SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29-30
DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL TRACKING SOUTHWARD AS IT SLOWLY
INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

INVEST 92S
As of 18:00 UTC Dec 03, 2019:
Location: 4.6°S 65.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.4S 55.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5S 65.0E, APPROXIMATELY 1088
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
030906Z 89GHZ AMSR2 GW1 SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29-30 CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, NVGM AND GFS SHOWING
VARYING LEVELS OF INTENSIFICATION AS 92S TRACKS SOUTH WHILE UKMET
AND GSM SHOW LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.

TY 29W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TY 29W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TC 06A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 06A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TC 07A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 07A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 91S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 91S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 92S: GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INVEST 92S: GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

03/20UTC
03/20UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 3 Décembre 2019 à 23:46