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TY 20W(MINDULLE) now over cooler seas//Arabian Sea: TC 03B(GULAB) to intensify to CAT 1 by 36h//Atlantic:18L(SAM) still a formidable Hurricane,01/03utc





JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TY 20W(MINDULLE) AND TC 03B(GULAB). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 20W,03B AND INVEST 91W.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TY 20W(MINDULLE) AND TC 03B(GULAB). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR 20W,03B AND INVEST 91W.


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC: TY 20W(MINDULLE). WARNING 35 ISSUED AT 01/03UTC

FORECAST REASONING.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE WITH CONTINUED COLD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, BY 24H, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY 36H IT WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 50-KNOT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT PASSES TO THE EAST OF HOKKAIDO.
FORECAST REASONING.SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE WITH CONTINUED COLD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, BY 24H, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY 36H IT WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 50-KNOT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT PASSES TO THE EAST OF HOKKAIDO.
2021092012  97N1567E  15
2021092018 102N1555E  15
2021092100 107N1541E  15
2021092106 109N1526E  20
2021092112 109N1517E  20
2021092118 109N1510E  20
2021092200 108N1503E  20
2021092206 110N1495E  20
2021092212 112N1486E  25
2021092218 118N1475E  30
2021092300 123N1460E  30
2021092306 130N1447E  35
2021092312 138N1428E  40
2021092318 141N1418E  45
2021092400 148N1410E  45
2021092406 155N1402E  45
2021092412 161N1392E  55
2021092418 167N1385E  65
2021092500 171N1381E  80
2021092506 175N1378E  90
2021092512 181N1374E 115
2021092518 184N1371E 115
2021092600 186N1369E 140
2021092606 188N1367E 145
2021092612 190N1367E 130
2021092618 194N1367E 110
2021092700 196N1367E 100
2021092706 199N1366E  95
2021092712 201N1364E  90
2021092718 205N1363E  90
2021092800 210N1362E  95
2021092806 217N1357E  95
2021092812 220N1355E 100
2021092818 226N1355E 110
2021092900 234N1354E 115
2021092906 218N1354E 115
2021092912 249N1355E 110
2021092918 258N1359E 110
2021093000 267N1364E 100
2021093006 280N1373E  90
2021093012 292N1383E  85
2021093018 304N1393E  80
2021100100 321N1411E  80
NNNN

TY 20W(MINDULLE) now over cooler seas//Arabian Sea: TC 03B(GULAB) to intensify to CAT 1 by 36h//Atlantic:18L(SAM) still a formidable Hurricane,01/03utc


SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EYE ON THE EDGE OF CLOSING IN ON ITSELF WITH FEEDER BANDS CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS/CAT 1 IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE VALUES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TY 20W HAS BEGUN TRACKING OVER A REGION OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WITH COLD DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EYE ON THE EDGE OF CLOSING IN ON ITSELF WITH FEEDER BANDS CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS/CAT 1 IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE VALUES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE, DESPITE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, TY 20W HAS BEGUN TRACKING OVER A REGION OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WITH COLD DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.


NORTH INDIAN OCEAN/ARABIAN SEA: TC 03B(GULAB). WARNING 13 ISSUED AT 01/03UTC

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARABIAN SEA UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE 72H IN NORTHERN OMAN. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 36H DUE TO A SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTERWARDS, SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 03B WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OMAN, WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION OVER THE DESERT ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARABIAN SEA UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE 72H IN NORTHERN OMAN. TC 03B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS/CAT 1 BY 36H DUE TO A SUSTAINED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTERWARDS, SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 03B WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OMAN, WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION OVER THE DESERT ENVIRONMENT.
0321092312 175N 947E  15
0321092318 177N 940E  20
0321092400 180N 934E  20
0321092406 185N 921E  35
0321092412 183N 910E  35
0321092418 183N 903E  35
0321092500 182N 897E  35
0321092506 182N 893E  35
0321092512 182N 888E  40
0321092518 183N 882E  40
0321092600 184N 871E  40
0321092606 184N 853E  40
0321092612 184N 843E  40
0321092618 180N 833E  35
0321092700 180N 821E  30
0321092706 182N 811E  25
0321092712 191N 801E  25
0321092718 195N 790E  20
0321092800 198N 779E  20
0321092806 200N 772E  20
0321092812 203N 767E  20
0321092818 208N 755E  20
0321092900 215N 741E  20
0321092906 221N 726E  25
0321092912 226N 714E  25
0321092918 226N 697E  25
0321093000 225N 689E  25
0321093006 227N 682E  25
0321093012 227N 669E  30
0321093018 227N 655E  40
0321100100 228N 647E  45
NNNN

TY 20W(MINDULLE) now over cooler seas//Arabian Sea: TC 03B(GULAB) to intensify to CAT 1 by 36h//Atlantic:18L(SAM) still a formidable Hurricane,01/03utc

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON TURNING IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY PRODUCING MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON TURNING IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY PRODUCING MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SOLIDIFY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET ENSEMBLE, WHICH SHOWS TC 03B TRACKING AS A QUASI-STATIONARY SYSTEM IN A COL EAST OF OMAN. DISREGARDING THE OUTLIER, CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS CURRENTLY 185KM AT 48H, WITH ALONG TRACK SPREAD STILL APPROXIMATELY THE SAME. THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FOR TC 03B GIVEN THE COMPETING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SOLIDIFY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET ENSEMBLE, WHICH SHOWS TC 03B TRACKING AS A QUASI-STATIONARY SYSTEM IN A COL EAST OF OMAN. DISREGARDING THE OUTLIER, CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS CURRENTLY 185KM AT 48H, WITH ALONG TRACK SPREAD STILL APPROXIMATELY THE SAME. THERE IS OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FOR TC 03B GIVEN THE COMPETING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS.


ATLANTIC: HU 18L(SAM). WARNING 34 ISSUED AT 01/03UTC

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 125KNOTS/CAT 4 AND IS FORECAST TO FALL AT 105KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 02/12UTC AND AT 85KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 03/12UTC.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 125KNOTS/CAT 4 AND IS FORECAST TO FALL AT 105KNOTS/CAT 3 BY 02/12UTC AND AT 85KNOTS/CAT 2 BY 03/12UTC.
1821091900 103N 115W  15
1821091906 100N 131W  15
1821091912  98N 147W  15
1821091918  96N 163W  15
1821092000  95N 178W  20
1821092006  95N 193W  25
1821092012  93N 210W  25
1821092018  94N 228W  25
1821092100  95N 247W  25
1821092106  95N 261W  25
1821092112  95N 273W  25
1821092118  95N 285W  25
1821092200  96N 296W  25
1821092206  96N 307W  25
1821092212  98N 319W  30
1821092218 100N 331W  30
1821092300 102N 344W  30
1821092306 105N 360W  35
1821092312 107N 376W  45
1821092318 109N 391W  50
1821092406 114N 416W  65
1821092400 111N 403W  65
1821092412 116N 431W  65
1821092418 119N 443W  70
1821092500 123N 454W  85
1821092506 127N 463W  95
1821092512 128N 472W 105
1821092518 131N 481W 115
1821092600 134N 487W 125
1821092606 137N 494W 125
1821092612 138N 500W 130
1821092618 140N 503W 135
1821092700 145N 506W 130
1821092706 150N 511W 115
1821092712 154N 517W 105
1821092718 159N 523W 105
1821092800 165N 529W 105
1821092806 170N 536W 115
1821092812 173N 541W 115
1821092818 177N 547W 115
1821092900 181N 553W 115
1821092906 186N 559W 115
1821092912 191N 566W 115
1821092918 197N 573W 115
1821093000 203N 580W 125
1821093006 210N 588W 125
1821093012 220N 596W 125
1821093018 230N 604W 125
1821100100 243N 610W 125

 

HU 18L(SAM). NHC/MIAMI WROTE: "Sam remains a formidable hurricane, with a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite imagery. The 25 n mi wide eye is surrounded by a fairly symmetric pattern of deep convective cloud tops, and the upper-level outflow pattern is very well defined. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the system and found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 133 kt, and a highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface wind of 125 kt. Based on these observations, the advisory intensity is kept at 125 kt. Measurements from the aircraft also showed that the central pressure remains quite low, near 938 mb. Sam will continue to traverse waters of high oceanic heat content for another 12-18 hours, and the shear should remain fairly low for the next few days. Therefore, some intensification could still occur overnight. In any event, the system is expected to maintain major hurricane status for the next 36-48 hours."
HU 18L(SAM). NHC/MIAMI WROTE: "Sam remains a formidable hurricane, with a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite imagery. The 25 n mi wide eye is surrounded by a fairly symmetric pattern of deep convective cloud tops, and the upper-level outflow pattern is very well defined. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the system and found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 133 kt, and a highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface wind of 125 kt. Based on these observations, the advisory intensity is kept at 125 kt. Measurements from the aircraft also showed that the central pressure remains quite low, near 938 mb. Sam will continue to traverse waters of high oceanic heat content for another 12-18 hours, and the shear should remain fairly low for the next few days. Therefore, some intensification could still occur overnight. In any event, the system is expected to maintain major hurricane status for the next 36-48 hours."



ATLANTIC: TS 20L(VICTOR). WARNING 7 ISSUED AT 01/03UTC

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 50KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 60KNOTS BY 02/00UTC.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS 50KNOTS AND IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 60KNOTS BY 02/00UTC.
2021092700  64N 104W  15
2021092706  64N 120W  15
2021092712  65N 136W  20
2021092718  66N 152W  20
2021092800  67N 168W  20
2021092806  67N 181W  25
2021092812  67N 197W  25
2021092818  68N 210W  25
2021092900  70N 220W  30
2021092906  75N 234W  30
2021092912  80N 241W  30
2021092918  81N 251W  35
2021093000  83N 260W  35
2021093006  87N 271W  40
2021093012  92N 284W  40
2021093018  97N 295W  40
2021100100103N 302W  50

TS 20W(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
TS 20W(VICTOR). TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE.


Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, October 1st 2021 à 06:32
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