TS 28W(RAI): gradual then rapid intensification forecast to Typhoon/CAT 3 by 48hours ,clipping northern Mindanao//TC 03P(RUBY) update,14/09utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 28W(RAI) AND 03P(RUBY).

14/0810UTC.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS RAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES, NEAR 48H, DRAG ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO, AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) AFTER 72H. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL GRADUAL THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS/CAT 3 BY 48H. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 85KTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. THE WARM SST IN THE SCS AND CONTINUED LOW VWS, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PROMOTE A SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS/CAT 2 BY 120H.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BROKEN UP AND CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AS FEEDER BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SEMI-CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 140403Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT, ALBEIT SLIGHT. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS, STRONG OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH.

INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD INDUCE INTENSIFICATION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO 120H. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO TAU 7272H THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD.

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC RUBY WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION TO 50KTS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL COMMENCE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE COMBINED EFFECT OF HIGH VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOL SST PREVAIL. BY 36H, TC RUBY WILL BECOME A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME RAGGED AFTER IT TRACKED ACROSS NEW CALEDONIA WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION OFFSET EASTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VWS, COOL SST, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.