TC 22P(PAUL)// Remnants of TC 21S(OLGA)// ECMWF 10 Day Storm Tracks// 1103utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 22P(PAUL). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 21S(OLGA)

REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 114.3E. 10APR24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED AND VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS, WHICH IS NOW BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD IS, ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING WIND AND SLP REPORTS FROM THEVENARD ISLAND, 27NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 10 FEET.//

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SMALL CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM IN THE CORAL SEA WITH SHORT CURVED BANDS TUCKED IN THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AND TOTALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON TRACING AND EXTRAPOLATION OF EXPOSED LOW CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO THE CDO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES REFLECTS THE SLIGHT CONVECTIVE DEEPENING. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSETTING THE WARM SST AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE NER RECEDES EASTWARD AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN A STEERING IMPASSE. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHILE IN QS MOTION AND UNDER MODERATE VWS, MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 24. AFTERWARD, AS IT STARTS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, THE RELATIVE VWS WILL ONLY GET WORSE AS IT TRACKS DIRECTLY AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW, GRADUALLY ERODING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.

MODEL DISCUSSION: GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS DOWN THE TRACK, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WHOLE OF JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THESE VARIABILITY ALSO LEND LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.