TC 20S(FERDINAND): CAT 1 US and intensifying. 19P(ESTHER): over-land, 25/03UTC update



TC 20S. ANIMATION. 04UTC. CLICK TO ANIMATE.

TC 20S(FERDINAND) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 25, 2020:
Location: 15.3°S 117.1°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

TPXS10 PGTW 250320
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND)
B. 25/0230Z
C. 15.42S
D. 116.85E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR MG TO
YIELD A DT OF 4.5. MET YIELDS A 4.0 AND PT 5.0. DBO DT
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   24/2202Z  15.05S  117.27E  WIND
   24/2251Z  15.22S  117.20E  SSMS
BERMEA
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 117.0E.
25FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
453 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
RAGGED PINHOLE EYE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEEPENED AND BECAME
MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN THE 242202Z CORIOLIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW.
ANALYSES INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (29-
30C). TC 20S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL BUILD AND FORM AN EXTENSION
THAT WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE STEADY THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION
TO A PEAK OF 90KTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 120, TC FERDINAND WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS AND
DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH NAVGEM THE EXTREME EAST
OUTLIER, AN INDICATION OF EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE, 19P, PROJECTED TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
AROUND TAU 72, EXIT INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN AND APPROACH TC 20S WITHIN
600NM. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN


OVERLAND TC 19P(ESTHER) SOUTH PACIFIC
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 25, 2020:

Location: 16.8°S 136.0°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
TPPS13 PGTW 250321
A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER)
B. 25/0230Z
C. 18.08S
D. 135.46E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 BERMEA
ABPW10 PGTW 250600
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19P) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 17.2S 135.9E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
242110Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT THAT THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ITS
ORGANIZATION DESPITE BEING OVER LAND, WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AND LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P
ARE EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC
19P WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AUSTRALIA WHERE THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE COASTLINE AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
TRAVELS OVER VERY WARM (30-32 DEGREES CELSIUS) WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.   



 

TC 20S: WARNING 6. PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST IN 24H.


 

TC 20S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


OVERLAND TC 19P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


TC 20S: 25/0112UTC


25/0515UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 25 Février 2020 à 09:27