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JTWC IS ISSUING 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON THE REMNANTS OF TC 18S(NEVILLE)
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: REMNANTS OF TC 18S(NEVILLE). ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 25/00UTC. INTENSITY IS 25 KNOTS
Model Diagnostic Plot
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2024sh18_hwrfdiag_202403241800.png
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2024sh18_avnodiag_202403250000.png
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TC Ensemble Forecasts: 120H
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN AT 24/2330UTC
TPXS11 PGTW 250005
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE)
B. 24/2330Z
C. 23.63S
D. 87.51E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0.
MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RAE
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE)
B. 24/2330Z
C. 23.63S
D. 87.51E
E. THREE/GK2A
F. T1.0/1.5/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM OUTSIDE OF COLD OVERCAST YIELD A DT OF 1.0.
MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RAE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 95S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 25/00UTC. INTENSITY IS 20 KNOTS. ADVISORY(ABIO) ISSUED AT 25/02UTC
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 52.7E, APPROXIMATELY 444 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242150Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION AS WELL AS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED, BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK (10-15KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
TC Ensemble Forecasts: 120H
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 03/24 18UTC+ 10 DAY
ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 03/24 18UTC+ 10 DAY
ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 03/24 18UTC+ 10 DAY
