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JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 18S
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: TC 18S(NEVILLE). ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS AT 24/00UTC: -35 KNOTS OVER 24 HOURS
1824032118 178S1037E 115
1824032200 178S1026E 115
1824032206 181S1009E 105
1824032212 184S 995E 90
1824032218 187S 979E 90
1824032300 191S 964E 85
1824032306 196S 950E 80
1824032312 205S 938E 70
1824032318 213S 926E 60
1824032400 222S 912E 50
1824032200 178S1026E 115
1824032206 181S1009E 105
1824032212 184S 995E 90
1824032218 187S 979E 90
1824032300 191S 964E 85
1824032306 196S 950E 80
1824032312 205S 938E 70
1824032318 213S 926E 60
1824032400 222S 912E 50
WARNING 41 ISSUED AT 24/03UTC
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), AND ITS UNRAVELING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LINES CONTINUE TO INTRUDE AND WRAP TOWARD THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED MICROWAVE LLC IN THE 232336Z SSMIS IMAGE SUITE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECT THE RAPID DECAY. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE MAINLY DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF STRONG VWS, LOW LEVEL COLD AIR INTRUSION, AND COOLING SST.
TC Warning Graphic
FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC NEVILLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL GET WORSE AND ERODE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER.
Model Diagnostic Plot
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
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2024sh18_hwrfdiag_202403240000.png
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TC Ensemble Forecasts: 120H
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
UPDATED SATELLITE BULLETIN AT 24/0230UTC
TPXS11 PGTW 240302
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE)
B. 24/0230Z
C. 22.26S
D. 91.05E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 0NM IN
SHEARED DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT
YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/2132Z 21.85S 91.80E SSMS
23/2336Z 22.13S 91.33E SSMS
CVACH
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (NEVILLE)
B. 24/0230Z
C. 22.26S
D. 91.05E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T3.0/3.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED 0NM IN
SHEARED DENSE OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT
YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/2132Z 21.85S 91.80E SSMS
23/2336Z 22.13S 91.33E SSMS
CVACH
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN: INVEST 95S. ESTIMATED LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT 24/00UTC. INTENSITY IS 20 KNOTS
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TC Ensemble Forecasts: 120H
ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 03/23 12UTC+ 10 DAY
ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 03/23 12UTC+ 10 DAY
ECMWF Storm Tracks (Ensemble) : 03/23 12UTC+ 10 DAY
