TC 16S(ELEANOR) peaking within 12H tracking East of MAURITIUS// TC 14P(LINCOLN) intensifying gradually next 36H//2203utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 14P(LINCOLN). JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 16S(ELEANOR).

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (ELEANOR) TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17KTS WITH MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND SMALL AMOUNTS OF STRIATED OUTFLOW WEAKLY EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP CONVECTION BRIEFLY DEVELOPED INTO A VERY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY WARMED AND DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE FAVORABLE BETWEEN 28-29C, HOWEVER OUTFLOW IS MODERATE IN THE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY VWS RANGING FROM 15-20KTS. DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS ALSO BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. TC 16S IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM MAURITIUS DEPICTING A LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 22325Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE USING PERSISTENCE AND THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THROUGH TAU 12, TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT CONTINUES TO RIDE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR TO THE EAST BEFORE TRACKING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE ALONG THE RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AROUND TAU 48, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, INDUCING SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 25-30KTS, WHICH WILL SHEAR APART TC 16S, MARKING THE ONSET OF RAPID WEAKENING. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE VORTEX WILL SHALLOW OUT, RESULTING IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 AND PEAK AT APPROXIMATELY 65KTS AS UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A 120 KNOT JET MAX TO THE SOUTH OFFSETS STEADILY INCREASING VWS. BEYOND TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE TO A STRONG 25-30KTS AND ENCOURAGE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS THE SYSTEM STEADILY DRIES AND WEAKENS TO 45KTS BY TAU 48 AND REACH FULL DISSIPATION OF 30KTS AT TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 16S WILL TRAVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, WITH A CROSS-TRACK ERROR OF ONLY APPROXIMATELY 100NM THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK CONTINUES TO AGREE THROUGH TAU 36-48 EXPECTING A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK BETWEEN 60-65KTS BY TAU 12 BEFORE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY STANDOUT MEMBER WAS THE JTWC SHIPS (GFS) MEMBER WHICH REMAINS JUST ABOVE 35KTS THROUGH TAU 120.

IMAGE SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL REGENERATED PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS PLACED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. IT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK UNTIL AROUND TAU 24, WHEN THE STR REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, ALLOWING FOR TC 14P TO TURN SOUTHWARD. AROUND TAU 60, TC 14 IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL, JUST WEST OF LEARMONTH. TC 14P WILL THEN MAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARDS INLAND AUSTRALIA AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO A FAVORABLE, BUT NOT HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KTS) MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AROUND TAU 48 TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION NO LATER THAN TAU 96.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL REGENERATED PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS PLACED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. IT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK UNTIL AROUND TAU 24, WHEN THE STR REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, ALLOWING FOR TC 14P TO TURN SOUTHWARD. AROUND TAU 60, TC 14 IS FORECASTED TO MAKE LANDFALL, JUST WEST OF LEARMONTH. TC 14P WILL THEN MAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARDS INLAND AUSTRALIA AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO A FAVORABLE, BUT NOT HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KTS) MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AROUND TAU 48 TC 14P IS FORECASTED TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MAKES LANDFALL AND DISSIPATES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION NO LATER THAN TAU 96.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 60NM, WHILE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SHARPLY AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWARD, TO 250NM BY TAU 72. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72 IS MEDIUM. AFTER TAU 72, THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT CONSIDERABLY, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING TO 250NM AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD ALSO INCREASING TO NEARLY 350NM, CAUSING CONFIDENCE TO DROP TO LOW IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH PEAK INTENSITIES IN THE GFS AND HAFS-A OF UP TO 50 KTS WHILE THE COAMPS-TC AND HWRF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH LOWER INTENSITY PEAK OF NEAR 35 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE HIGH END, ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MEAN, AND CLOSE TO THE HAFS-A MODEL WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.