TC 11S(FREDDY) soon over the MOZ Channel with 5th intensity peak& landfall near Vilankulos after 48h//Invest 93S TCFA//Invest 94P//2203utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON TC 11S(FREDDY). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED ON INVEST 93S.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT DEEP CONVECTIVE CIRCULATION THAT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF FRAGMENTATION DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. A 212223Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH AN EXPOSED SOUTHERN QUADRANT REVEALING FAINT LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EIR AND AMSR2 IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE MOUNTAIN RANGE OVER EASTERN MADAGASCAR GENERALLY AGREEING WITH CIMMS ORDERED PATTERN ENCODING AI INFRARED TC INTENSITY ESTIMATOR (OPEN-AIR), ONE OF THE FEW INTENSITY AIDS AVAILABLE OVER LAND.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: HAVING MADE LANDFALL APPROXIMATELY SIX HOURS AGO, TC 11S (FREDDY) IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT IS RIPPED APART BY THE MOUNTAINOUS EASTERN REGION OF MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 45KTS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, THESE ELEMENTS PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND BY TAU 36, 11S IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS FIFTH AND FINAL PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 60KTS. AS THE STR TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BUILD, 11S WILL BE FORCED WESTWARD MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48 AND QUICKLY WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 96, AFTER A HISTORIC TRIP OF OVER 5000 NM, TC 11S WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTH AFRICA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, COAMPS-TC (NVGM AND GFS), HWRF AND UK-MET ENSEMBLE INDICATE A POSSIBLE SHARP POLEWARD RECURVE BACK OVER THE CHANNEL WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE A POLEWARD TURN. FOR THESE REASONS THE INITIAL FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WHILE THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72, AFTER WHICH THE MEMBERS THAT TRACK BACK OVER WATER INDICATE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE REST RESULT IN DISSIPATION BY TAU 96.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 76.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 75.4E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. AN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGE AND A 212245Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEEP CURVING CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE COMMA CLOUD, FULLY OBSCURING THE LLCC (LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER) WITH STRENGTHENING CONVECTION BANDING. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS FAVORABLE AT 10-15KT, DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD TOGETHER WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AT 28-29C PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.