TC 08S(DANILO): forecast to reach US/Category1 in 72 hours, moderate confidence in the JTWC forecast


OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT.BY 36H THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PUSH THE SYSTEM TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 96H. IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, A DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EAST
OF MADAGASCAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT TURN POLEWARD BY 120H.


OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 08S IS  FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAK   STEERING ENVIRONMENT.BY 36H THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL  STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PUSH THE SYSTEM TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 96H. IN THE  EXTENDED FORECAST, A DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EAST  OF MADAGASCAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT TURN POLEWARD BY 120H.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.BY 36H THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PUSH THE SYSTEM TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 96H. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT TURN POLEWARD BY 120H.
2021 JAN 04 1430UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 11
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 04, 2021:
Location: 15.4°S 76.2°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 76.2E.
04JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1005
KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13
KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS MOST LIKELY COMPLETELY ABSORBED
THE REMNANTS OF INVEST 93S OVER THE PREVIOUS 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE AREA
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT WAS INVEST
93S TO THE NORTHWEST HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, AND
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FLARE OVER THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041100Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATED WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN QUADRANTS, WITH THE LLCC JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION, PROVIDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE,
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF PGTW / FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T3.5 (35-45 KTS), AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.6 (56 KTS)
AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL
CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) WATERS
AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAK  
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE NER WEAKENS AND RETREATS WESTWARD, AND A
THE STR TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. BY TAU 36, THE STR WILL
STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ASSUME THE DOMINATE STEERING ROLE,
PUSHING THE SYSTEM TO A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96. IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, A DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH EAST
OF MADAGASCAR WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT TURN POLEWARD BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
TRACK SCENARIO, BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST AND THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FAVORS THE
GALWEM AND UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEAR-
TERM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AFTER
ABSORPTION OF 93S, BUT THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TAU 36, LIMITED BY
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BY TAU 48, SLOWLY IMPROVING OUTFLOW, LOW
VWS AND CONTINUED WARM SSTS WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THOUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

04/14UTC. THE AREA  OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH  INVEST  93S TO THE NORTHWEST HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, AND  CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FLARE OVER THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL  CIRCULATION CENTER OF TC 08S.
04/14UTC. THE AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93S TO THE NORTHWEST HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, AND CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO FLARE OVER THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TC 08S.

MICROWAVE IMAGE  INDICATED WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND  NORTHERN QUADRANTS, WITH THE LLCC JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST  CONVECTION
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS, WITH THE LLCC JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION

04/1044UTC. DMSP. CONVECTION WAS STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN.
04/1044UTC. DMSP. CONVECTION WAS STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 4 Janvier 2021 à 19:00