TC 08S(DANILO) forecast to intensify significantly after 48h after kiiling off Invest 93S. Invest 97P still Medium in the GOC



TC 08S(DANIO) WARNING 4: WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST HAS INCREASED SINCE THE  PREVIOUS RUN, THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 08S AND INVEST 93S AND THE RESULTANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE  REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
TC 08S(DANIO) WARNING 4: WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST HAS INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN, THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 08S AND INVEST 93S AND THE RESULTANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
2021 JAN 02 1309UTC #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
TC #08S #DANILO
WARNING 4
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 10.8°S 72.5°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 72.7E.
02JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DANILO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH A SHARP EASTERN
(UPSHEAR) BOUNDARY AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED OUTER BANDS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 021133Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
DEPICTED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE IN LINE WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW, HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE FMEE
ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND ADT/SATCON ESTIMATES BETWEEN 50-55 KTS
BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A GENERALLY MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS, BEING OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP A
SECONDARY CIRCULATION OF ITS OWN WHICH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE
IMPACT FROM INVEST 93S, CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE SHARP UPSHEAR BOUNDARY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFIRMS
HOWEVER THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY HIGH EASTERLY
SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93S TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS
INDICATED BY THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR, TC 08S APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED
TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
STRENGTHENING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC
08S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH INVEST 93S OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH TC 08S CONTINUING TO TRACK GNERALLY SOUTHEAST
WHILE 93S TRACKS WEST THEN NORTH AS IT WRAPS INTO AND BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO TC 08S BY APPROXIMATELY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TC 08S IS TO SLOW
AS IT ENTERS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER AND A BUILDING
STR TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 72 THE STR BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING
MECHANISM, AND TC 08S ACCELERATES WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE
METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION IS STILL VERY COMPLEX DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 08S AND INVEST 93S. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY, BUT HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING THE
SOUTHEAST TRACK, THEN WESTWARD, THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN
TERMS OF TRACK SPEED AND TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN TO THE WEST.
THE GFS, COAMPS-TC (GFS VERSION) AND HWRF ARE GROUPED CLOSELY TOGETHER
ON THE EASTERN MOST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHILE NAVGEM,
GALWEM, AND ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE GROUPED ON THE WEST.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSELY TRACKING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TC
08S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEAR-TERM AS VWS IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG,
PEAKING AT 50 KTS BY TAU 12. AS INVEST 93S BEGINS TO FUJIWHARA AND
MERGE WITH TC 08S, IT WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY, TO 40 KTS.
ONCE THE MERGER IS COMPLETE AND THE SYSTEM STARTS MOVING WEST IN
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM (27-28C) SSTS, LOW VWS AND
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED, PEAKING AT 70 KTS BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A PEAK NEAR 100 KTS
BY TAU 120, WHILE THE SHIPS-GFS INDICATES A 30 KT INTENSITY AT TAU
120. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST HAS INCREASED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS RUN, THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS AND THE RESULTANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE
REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z,
030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN
              -----------------------------------------  
INVEST #93S
UPDATE:
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 14.6°S 77.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
WEAKENING
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
MEDIUM
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
----------------------------------------------
INVEST #97P #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #GULFOFCARPENTARIA
UPDATE:
As of 12:00 UTC Jan 02, 2021:
Location: 15.5°S 138.0°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
MEDIUM
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau

TC 08S: 02/1133UTC: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID  TO UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION.
TC 08S: 02/1133UTC: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OFFSET TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION.

TC 08S: 02/1423UTC: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INCREASINGLY EXPOSED.THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY HIGH EASTERLY  SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93S TO THE SOUTHEAST.
TC 08S: 02/1423UTC: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INCREASINGLY EXPOSED.THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING RELATIVELY HIGH EASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 93S TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TC 08S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 08S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


INVEST 97P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 97P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 2 Janvier 2021 à 19:23